UFC · resolved market
MVP Fight Night: Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x290f0fd8e01cb9b04bb32219e49bcfc374ecafeb7d116cc4743e4c406fed163f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ngannouof Ngannou, Lins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $110,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,196
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1136…0c2ebacked Lins | 10c | 13,489$1,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,348.92 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacb2…b989backed Lins | 10c | 10,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x016f…c5ffbacked Lins | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc001…59a3backed Lins | 12c | 5,702$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Lins | 9c | 4,160$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.58 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Lins | 11c | 4,021$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.41 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Lins | 10c | 2,409$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.72 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…6b45backed Lins | 14c | 2,053$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Lins | 8c | 2,000$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x670d…0825backed Lins | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…7967backed Lins | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…1f6fbacked Lins | 8c | 1,500$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe641…0f63backed Lins | 8c | 1,300$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d9…5896backed Lins | 12c | 1,242$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 142 | 37.3%53 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…7e11backed Lins | 5c | 1,100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Lins | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92c6…545bbacked Lins | 12c | 965.25$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.83 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ce…02b2backed Lins | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd4…7546backed Lins | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…c005backed Lins | 11c | 870.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…e8c1backed Lins | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa919…65fabacked Lins | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c6…6657backed Lins | 12c | 792.95$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…3c7abacked Lins | 12c | 693.17$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.18 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c7…5d22backed Lins | 13c | 608.77$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb86d…40fcbacked Lins | 12c | 564.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.81 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf3…e6a8backed Lins | 14c | 562.6$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.71 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddfe…4c2ebacked Lins | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8c…c014backed Lins | 11c | 489.09$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bd…31e6backed Ngannou | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +187.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4a…c897backed Lins | 11c | 452.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +157.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…858cbacked Lins | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9afa…d7e5backed Lins | 12c | 402.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd738…eeeebacked Lins | 8c | 383.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 132 | 48.5%64 W · 68 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Lins | 10c | 366.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee5f…0ff4backed Lins | 12c | 327.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2534…3484backed Lins | 11c | 318.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7aff…9bbfbacked Lins | 11c | 309.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Lins | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0094…c496backed Lins | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ef…9684backed Lins | 11c | 281.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…f087backed Lins | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2673…5ac9backed Lins | 13c | 270.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c20…53d5backed Lins | 11c | 226.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a04…2071backed Lins | 9c | 212.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4be…7441backed Lins | 11c | 210.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Lins | 12c | 206.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…4e8bbacked Lins | 12c | 201.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Lins | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Lins | 11c | 184.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca69…c952backed Lins | 12c | 183.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff3…5e26backed Lins | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2466…1934backed Lins | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b06…6c73backed Lins | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa795…4e38backed Lins | 11c | 163.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcea8…5a4dbacked Lins | 11c | 163.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…b8c8backed Lins | 11c | 161.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6905…d0e8backed Lins | 10c | 158.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb79a…090cbacked Lins | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba6…8b23backed Lins | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…75e3backed Lins | 11c | 135.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4e…1d8fbacked Lins | 12c | 131.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7b…61d2backed Lins | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc069…0807backed Lins | 10c | 123.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Lins | 11c | 119.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 175 | 24%42 W · 133 L | -22.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x616a…54dfbacked Lins | 11c | 109.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8e…6fb9backed Lins | 13c | 107.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbc…962ebacked Lins | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63e3…856dbacked Lins | 13c | 105.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…324ebacked Lins | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb232…8709backed Lins | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2802…11c7backed Lins | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f44…bc79backed Lins | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54fc…942ebacked Lins | 12c | 91.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb053…bcdebacked Lins | 12c | 85.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0620…b0f0backed Lins | 14c | 78.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x722b…31fcbacked Lins | 59c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.