Commodities · resolved market
Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc16dd5ad68d9667a680a03ddc208d13976915f540fec387b94ca62f7c97e281a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,235
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,235 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 4c | 2,722$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.6 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56e7…7c0bbacked No | 75c | 678.99$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.26 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…0fe5backed No | 77c | 579$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.89 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 69cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 24c | 418.75$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 21c | 263.28$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…f5c2backed Yes | 16c | 227.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 20c | 212.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 21c | 170.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0314…2f6dbacked Yes | 21c | 163.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.41per pick | 43cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…139ebacked Yes | 24c | 135.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c4…0926backed Yes | 22c | 132.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +250.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 19c | 63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe77f…b959backed No | 67c | 34.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 78c | 32.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7f…6413backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc419…ca5bbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 15.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?this page
- Will there be 40 or more average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?No won
- Will there be between 25 and 27 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?No won
- Will there be between 28 and 30 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?Yes won
- Will there be between 31 and 33 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?No won
- Will there be between 34 and 36 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?No won
- Will there be between 37 and 39 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.