Commodities · resolved market
Will there be between 28 and 30 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87aef7d7aef3f4f26da93b4598d7c7ba8e5ec8f6b8a88d32823d7914b8b52e7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 63c | 435$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.45 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed Yes | 36c | 389.25$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.26 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 17c | 156.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 12c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 16c | 115.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.63 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…a399backed Yes | 27c | 97.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +298.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 18c | 87.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.55 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 86.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.14 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 74c | 23.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 79c | 15.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be between 28 and 30 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?this page
- Will there be 40 or more average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?No won
- Will there be between 25 and 27 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?No won
- Will there be between 31 and 33 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?No won
- Will there be between 34 and 36 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?No won
- Will there be between 37 and 39 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?No won
- Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.