NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x481ee6e35cb6db1d4beba0c673366085f81117f0cda134a2d446c3b8ae0a4e77

Rebuilt 21 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Feb 8, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $105,982
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $103,532

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,982 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4924…3782backed Over	56c	43,647$24,297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24,297.14	874	51.5%450 W · 424 L	+15.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bd7…373ebacked Under	44c	36,937$16,309 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20,628.16	93	50.5%47 W · 46 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under	44c	32,500$14,400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18,100	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Over	57c	4,363$2,487 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,486.84	267	53.2%142 W · 125 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1997…2e36backed Under	42c	3,379$1,415 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,963.38	187	47.1%88 W · 99 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	45c	2,253$1,020 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,232.31	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under	44c	2,248$988 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,259.9	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	54c	2,084$1,126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,126	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x128f…db9dbacked Over	58c	1,724$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	206	51.5%106 W · 100 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Under	43c	1,695$729 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$966.15	715	47.7%341 W · 374 L	-26.9wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe652…0677backed Over	55c	1,397$769 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$768.51	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-2.0wins	-0.33per pick	50cpaid	-66%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Over	53c	1,203$641 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$641.31	331	46.2%153 W · 178 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under	44c	1,000$443 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$556.67	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over	55c	912.78$502 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$502	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x97e5…e2f4backed Over	58c	862.07$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	49	32.7%16 W · 33 L	-4.4wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5db5…5df8backed Over	56c	861.58$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$479.78	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-2.2wins	-0.12per pick	51cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x65d6…6d6bbacked Over	58c	856.51$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	128	44.5%57 W · 71 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe57…3920backed Over	70c	806.43$563 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$563.23	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.38per pick	71cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x94d8…8835backed Over	54c	555.56$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	134	64.2%86 W · 48 L	+8.0wins	+0.06per pick	58cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under	48c	551.21$264 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$287.05	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Under	48c	438$210 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$227.76	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4a4…3117backed Under	12c	400$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$352	286	16.4%47 W · 239 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over	55c	348.78$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.54	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Under	45c	343.47$155 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$188.76	1,044	47.5%496 W · 548 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over	53c	341.71$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.85	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under	46c	326.06$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$176.07	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Over	71c	242.63$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.05	332	58.7%195 W · 137 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Under	46c	208.33$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.5	634	47.5%301 W · 333 L	-19.8wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Under	46c	200$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109	911	48.1%438 W · 473 L	-11.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under	44c	200$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc0d…78a5backed Over	55c	193.4$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.37	38	31.6%12 W · 26 L	-6.5wins	-0.17per pick	49cpaid	-36%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xba0d…9a6ebacked Under	47c	182$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.46	147	42.2%62 W · 85 L	-8.9wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b3f…8cd6backed Over	55c	176.65$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.51	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed Under	48c	175.27$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.14	336	53.9%181 W · 155 L	+13.4wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf8f…8bbabacked Over	9c	158.32$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	80	27.5%22 W · 58 L	-4.3wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Over	53c	145.22$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.4	874	53.3%466 W · 408 L	+19.7wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x187b…8848backed Over	60c	133.33$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	722	50.6%365 W · 357 L	-17.6wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Under	53c	130$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.6	1,522	49.6%755 W · 767 L	+27.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb068…65fcbacked Over	55c	129.22$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.07	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.55per pick	55cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over	55c	118.52$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.51	5,844	46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L	+32.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Under	43c	107.4$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.22	625	41.9%262 W · 363 L	-32.7wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-11%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x70b2…1950backed Over	54c	105.56$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	83	57.8%48 W · 35 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe09c…d04fbacked Over	56c	89.28$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	38	52.6%20 W · 18 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Under	28c	88.13$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.45	1,390	26%361 W · 1,029 L	-5.6wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f61…4e52backed Over	56c	86.72$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.38	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d30…2645backed Under	42c	84$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.72	74	48.6%36 W · 38 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under	27c	80.43$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.41	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd151…faf9backed Over	56c	73.9$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.55	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x679f…2940backed Over	55c	71.93$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.56	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd730…1948backed Under	44c	61.7$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.55	171	55.6%95 W · 76 L	+4.9wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa930…8317backed Over	55c	58.34$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.55per pick	55cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb665…0a43backed Under	48c	56.23$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.24	52	34.6%18 W · 34 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Over	72c	55.56$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	1,573	53.4%840 W · 733 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3938…c6cbbacked Over	59c	52.54$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	99	60.6%60 W · 39 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	58cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over	59c	49.1$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.97	1,562	47.4%741 W · 821 L	-6.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x82d0…60a1backed Under	43c	46.51$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.51	146	43.8%64 W · 82 L	-8.7wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x033f…b8cabacked Over	55c	45.45$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	133	52.6%70 W · 63 L	-6.4wins	-0.05per pick	57cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x457f…cf1dbacked Over	56c	44.64$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	106	59.4%63 W · 43 L	+5.1wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x711a…9240backed Over	58c	44.26$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.83	408	49%200 W · 208 L	-12.8wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe726…958ebacked Over	58c	43.1$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under	26c	41.71$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.95	903	57%515 W · 388 L	+40.0wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd27…4721backed Over	54c	40.74$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	104	57.7%60 W · 44 L	+4.9wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8557…4e7abacked Under	31c	34.64$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.74	189	57.1%108 W · 81 L	+12.7wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbac0…f02ebacked Over	59c	33.9$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Over	60c	33.02$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.82	576	57.8%333 W · 243 L	+13.0wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd647…9c8fbacked Over	58c	32$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.56	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	-4.7wins	-0.17per pick	53cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed Over	55c	31.48$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.18	415	56.9%236 W · 179 L	-7.7wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c7…b84abacked Under	42c	30$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.4	57	57.9%33 W · 24 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d72…c356backed Under	47c	30$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.9	412	51%210 W · 202 L	+8.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b41…01c7backed Under	43c	28$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.82	538	39.4%212 W · 326 L	-26.8wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f26…48fdbacked Over	55c	27.89$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.34	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.24per pick	58cpaid	-55.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Under	44c	27.27$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.27	509	48.5%247 W · 262 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7399…fe96backed Over	58c	26.83$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.56	24	33.3%8 W · 16 L	-4.7wins	-0.19per pick	53cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb259…2988backed Over	57c	26.32$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	-2.9wins	-0.13per pick	61cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Over	52c	24.48$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.73	950	47.2%448 W · 502 L	-28.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1c7…d11ebacked Under	44c	23.69$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.27	42	57.1%24 W · 18 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x25d6…04cbbacked Over	57c	22.39$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.72	33	33.3%11 W · 22 L	-4.9wins	-0.15per pick	48cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	50c	20.57$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.34	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6263…f8e1backed Over	52c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	33	54.5%18 W · 15 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	58cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc054…7877backed Over	55c	19.91$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.89	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba88…ec75backed Over	54c	18.96$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.24	32	43.8%14 W · 18 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	37cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5this page
1H Spread: Heat (-6.5)Heat won
Alexandre Sarr: Points O/U 16.5No won
Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 16.5No won
Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
Bilal Coulibaly: Points O/U 10.5No won
Bub Carrington: Assists O/U 5.5No won
Heat vs. WizardsHeat won
Heat vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineHeat won
Heat vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
Heat vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 235.5Under won
Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 236.5Under won
Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5Under won
Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 238.5Under won
Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 241.5Under won
Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 243.5Under won
Justin Champagnie: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 4.5No won
Spread: Heat (-10.5)Heat won
Spread: Heat (-11.5)Heat won
Spread: Heat (-12.5)Heat won
Spread: Heat (-13.5)Heat won
Spread: Heat (-20.5)Heat won
Spread: Heat (-22.5)Heat won
Spread: Heat (-24.5)Heat won
Spread: Heat (-27.5)Heat won
Spread: Heat (-31.5)Wizards won
Spread: Heat (-8.5)Heat won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event