NBA · resolved market

Spread: Heat (-13.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x009d2e42413c39b0e830e44497cf2b1a88cc425a43256c064946dc8dc7e08e5f

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Heatof Heat, Wizards
Resolved: Feb 8, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $248,508
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $265,293

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $248,508 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x93ab…9723backed Wizards	52c	76,410$39,433 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39,433.04	603	51.4%310 W · 293 L	+16.3wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Heat	49c	50,247$24,736 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25,510.79	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb12d…f73cbacked Wizards	50c	46,214$23,053 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23,052.86	96	55.2%53 W · 43 L	+4.3wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Heat	50c	24,901$12,462 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,438.73	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Wizards	51c	22,203$11,247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,246.71	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked Wizards	67c	20,000$13,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13,399.96	207	58%120 W · 87 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Heat	50c	14,917$7,459 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,458.56	165	47.3%78 W · 87 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	+56.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aba…4961backed Heat	33c	11,587$3,824 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,763.42	71	50.7%36 W · 35 L	+3.6wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Heat	49c	11,063$5,421 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,642.13	1,908	54.5%1,040 W · 868 L	+53.7wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Heat	36c	8,971$3,199 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,771.98	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Heat	50c	6,000$3,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,000	584	49.7%290 W · 294 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Heat	49c	5,533$2,690 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,842.95	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Wizards	50c	4,786$2,393 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,392.88	824	42.2%348 W · 476 L	-3.7wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfecb…19babacked Wizards	52c	4,086$2,125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,124.58	114	52.6%60 W · 54 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Heat	50c	4,000$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,000	1,910	54.3%1,038 W · 872 L	+25.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d8…bd4dbacked Wizards	51c	3,875$1,976 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,976	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Heat	50c	3,038$1,517 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,520.6	1,163	52.8%614 W · 549 L	+22.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Wizards	50c	2,715$1,357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,357.39	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Heat	45c	2,356$1,058 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,297.68	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05b9…2adfbacked Wizards	53c	1,887$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	120	51.7%62 W · 58 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4c9…617dbacked Wizards	51c	1,748$891 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$891.49	113	51.3%58 W · 55 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Heat	48c	1,594$767 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$826.74	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xabde…d41fbacked Wizards	53c	1,405$744 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$744.5	419	47.7%200 W · 219 L	-4.1wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Wizards	50c	1,247$624 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$624.22	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Heat	42c	1,236$518 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$718.04	2,630	36.7%966 W · 1,664 L	-119.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Heat	50c	1,118$554 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$564.38	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Wizards	53c	1,000$528 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$528.21	956	41.7%399 W · 557 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf630…7e65backed Wizards	53c	999.97$530 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$529.98	291	49.5%144 W · 147 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed Wizards	54c	826.2$445 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$445	46	39.1%18 W · 28 L	-5.7wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Wizards	50c	821.53$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410.27	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Heat	63c	746.46$473 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$273.66	830	39.4%327 W · 503 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5db5…5df8backed Wizards	53c	709.62$378 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$378.47	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-2.2wins	-0.12per pick	51cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4cbf…70a1backed Wizards	73c	627.88$459 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$458.85	66	34.8%23 W · 43 L	-5.0wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Wizards	51c	569.08$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287.58	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Heat	33c	500$165 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$335	236	44.1%104 W · 132 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8590…07adbacked Wizards	40c	494.12$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	59	45.8%27 W · 32 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Wizards	60c	423.75$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.29	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Heat	35c	410$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$265.9	1,384	39.4%545 W · 839 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Wizards	62c	401.91$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	591	40.8%241 W · 350 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf09f…8049backed Wizards	33c	400$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.6	666	45.9%306 W · 360 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64aa…7f42backed Wizards	26c	384.62$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	57	49.1%28 W · 29 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7226…873dbacked Wizards	52c	296.87$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.37	38	36.8%14 W · 24 L	-4.2wins	-0.11per pick	48cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2942…a018backed Wizards	53c	256.72$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136	231	43.3%100 W · 131 L	-13.5wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed Heat	53c	237.38$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.87	470	45.1%212 W · 258 L	-10.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Wizards	52c	200$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103	911	48.1%438 W · 473 L	-11.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Wizards	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	634	47.5%301 W · 333 L	-19.8wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d37…5b73backed Wizards	70c	162.66$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.57	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-3.0wins	-0.15per pick	60cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Heat	49c	161.43$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.96	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Heat	49c	128.55$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.92	666	46.8%312 W · 354 L	-29.6wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-11%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3cb…ef82backed Heat	48c	127.45$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.91	48	25%12 W · 36 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x711a…9240backed Wizards	51c	120.89$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.26	408	49%200 W · 208 L	-12.8wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Heat	50c	118.66$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.58	950	47.2%448 W · 502 L	-28.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf104…d34cbacked Heat	57c	118.41$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.78	138	50%69 W · 69 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Heat	49c	110.97$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.97	659	50.8%335 W · 324 L	+15.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ba9…5ba8backed Wizards	49c	102$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.98	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	61cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Heat	52c	100$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.22	493	51.7%255 W · 238 L	-4.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Wizards	64c	90.25$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.18	506	51.2%259 W · 247 L	+11.8wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Heat	49c	86.09$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.09	397	56.7%225 W · 172 L	+21.4wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8996…15efbacked Heat	40c	83.17$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.27	243	30.5%74 W · 169 L	-15.4wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f19…b0cabacked Wizards	59c	78.56$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-56.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd00…7a45backed Wizards	51c	68.63$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	380	50.8%193 W · 187 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05f9…f351backed Heat	51c	68$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.65	410	48.3%198 W · 212 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Heat	50c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	762	50.4%384 W · 378 L	+3.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xdd84…9f62backed Wizards	52c	59.03$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.47	143	52.4%75 W · 68 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbe2…6158backed Wizards	53c	56.6$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	332	49.7%165 W · 167 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…5976backed Wizards	52c	56.1$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.17	94	58.5%55 W · 39 L	+6.0wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe88b…fa5abacked Heat	33c	50$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.5	432	46.1%199 W · 233 L	-4.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Heat	76c	44.15$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.6	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Heat	47c	38.03$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.03	509	48.5%247 W · 262 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3d57…2b4ebacked Wizards	52c	36$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.54	539	45.3%244 W · 295 L	-9.6wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Heat	49c	35$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.85	1,018	51.6%525 W · 493 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Heat	41c	33.47$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.78	1,283	23.4%300 W · 983 L	-178.2wins	-0.14per pick	37cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x16bc…5325backed Heat	34c	32.73$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.47	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	19cpaid	-70.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3494…04f4backed Heat	50c	29.41$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.71	350	49.4%173 W · 177 L	-4.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Wizards	51c	29.27$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.93	190	51.6%98 W · 92 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x137e…20d7backed Wizards	51c	28.74$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.59	150	40%60 W · 90 L	-14.1wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xed95…889cbacked Heat	48c	27$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.04	197	50.3%99 W · 98 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8557…4e7abacked Heat	53c	26.43$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.42	189	57.1%108 W · 81 L	+12.7wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Wizards	59c	22.23$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.09	927	50.6%469 W · 458 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa33c…1b33backed Wizards	52c	22.02$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.45	628	44.9%282 W · 346 L	-21.3wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaab3…35f3backed Wizards	52c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	50	52%26 W · 24 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Heat (-13.5)this page
1H Spread: Heat (-6.5)Heat won
Alexandre Sarr: Points O/U 16.5No won
Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 16.5No won
Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
Bilal Coulibaly: Points O/U 10.5No won
Bub Carrington: Assists O/U 5.5No won
Heat vs. WizardsHeat won
Heat vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineHeat won
Heat vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
Heat vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5Under won
Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 235.5Under won
Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 236.5Under won
Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5Under won
Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 238.5Under won
Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 241.5Under won
Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 243.5Under won
Justin Champagnie: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 4.5No won
Spread: Heat (-10.5)Heat won
Spread: Heat (-11.5)Heat won
Spread: Heat (-12.5)Heat won
Spread: Heat (-20.5)Heat won
Spread: Heat (-22.5)Heat won
Spread: Heat (-24.5)Heat won
Spread: Heat (-27.5)Heat won
Spread: Heat (-31.5)Wizards won
Spread: Heat (-8.5)Heat won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Heat (-13.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event