TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 235.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$495,460
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$506,002

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $495,460 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 188 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Over54c223,270$119,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119,844.2987451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Over52c126,737$65,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65,334.8626753.2%142 W · 125 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under49c100,000$49,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,0002,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Under48c75,000$36,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,00024650%123 W · 123 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bd7…373ebacked Under46c46,769$21,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,435.169350.5%47 W · 46 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under49c30,000$14,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,4502,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1997…2e36backed Under44c9,725$4,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,471.2418747.1%88 W · 99 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over53c9,171$4,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,906.139,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Under44c6,426$2,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,598.5640350.1%202 W · 201 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cdc…b83fbacked Over53c4,940$2,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,618.2720948.8%102 W · 107 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under45c4,060$1,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2335,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Over51c3,920$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Under45c3,076$1,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,691.5670246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fb4…5c6cbacked Over51c3,039$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,55026640.2%107 W · 159 L+1.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Over54c2,679$1,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,446.724744.1%109 W · 138 L-10.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under49c2,599$1,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,324.942,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under45c2,247$1,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,225.94,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under47c2,088$989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,098.833,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Under48c2,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,04032051.9%166 W · 154 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Over51c1,945$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.3658347%274 W · 309 L-12.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Over51c1,500$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76569149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7b7…8255backed Over50c1,490$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x926e…229fbacked Over50c1,490$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2363…1a5abacked Under50c1,490$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x171a…7221backed Under50c1,490$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aaa…eeefbacked Under50c1,490$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02ca…4610backed Over50c1,490$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb7a…ae77backed Under50c1,490$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2a9…6367backed Over50c1,490$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x38b9…78a3backed Over50c1,490$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7f7…f0c8backed Over50c1,490$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xccf4…e5e5backed Under50c1,490$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa00b…e8a3backed Under50c1,490$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cb5…e68ebacked Under50c1,490$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69d2…30b3backed Over50c1,490$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3325…894dbacked Over50c1,490$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0230…5baebacked Under50c1,490$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x324b…287cbacked Under50c1,490$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x437e…91f6backed Under50c1,490$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcee7…181bbacked Over50c1,490$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ea8…0e6abacked Over50c1,490$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x13f7…a7f9backed Over50c1,490$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfad6…8a0cbacked Under50c1,490$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b58…ee43backed Under50c1,490$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafcf…5d5fbacked Over50c1,490$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8866…82d3backed Under50c1,490$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0fe…559fbacked Over50c1,490$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5935…b9d5backed Over50c1,490$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x253c…0104backed Over50c1,490$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6693…5098backed Under50c1,490$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0afa…8eedbacked Over50c1,490$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9230…46b4backed Under50c1,490$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae3a…8bcbbacked Over50c1,490$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc811…8834backed Over50c1,490$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b6b…5b0abacked Under50c1,490$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf99…5bc7backed Under50c1,490$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa868…bc41backed Under50c1,490$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0adc…c43bbacked Over50c1,490$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3bc…61dcbacked Over50c1,490$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x56a9…ad63backed Under50c1,490$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86b7…ef13backed Under50c1,490$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4be9…be52backed Under50c1,490$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x653f…f477backed Under50c1,490$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4701…1969backed Under50c1,490$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45ed…40babacked Over50c1,490$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x17a6…dcf7backed Under50c1,490$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf230…2c86backed Over50c1,490$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3122…f932backed Over50c1,490$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ebf…932cbacked Under50c1,490$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a32…a272backed Over50c1,490$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over51c1,259$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.096,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Under80c1,250$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2501,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf263…7779backed Over50c1,190$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over54c1,169$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.913,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3de6…405cbacked Over56c1,145$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64143453.2%231 W · 203 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdace…2253backed Over58c1,035$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Under50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50067252.7%354 W · 318 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a33…d0e2backed Over51c980.39$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005468.5%37 W · 17 L+9.4wins+0.17per pick51cpaid+30%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over51c882.35$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4502,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd23…e31fbacked Over54c862.96$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46647354.8%259 W · 214 L+14.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Under49c835.52$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.1227051.5%139 W · 131 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over23c812.55$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.623,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Under51c800$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39261740.7%251 W · 366 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cca…6143backed Under51c785$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.6541550.1%208 W · 207 L+18.9wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x47a6…69e0backed Under45c777.78$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.7838750.4%195 W · 192 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over54c739.24$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.33,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Under50c683$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.12,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Under45c641.63$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.7966646.8%312 W · 354 L-29.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Over55c499.99$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27522846.1%105 W · 123 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Over51c490.2$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25033150.8%168 W · 163 L+1.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Under45c391.11$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.1137747.5%179 W · 198 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over52c379.91$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.518,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a53…505abacked Over69c355.3$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.641233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-42.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Under42c330.23$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.461,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81b7…bd2abacked Under54c318.63$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.413256.3%18 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under49c300$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1532,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under47c299.98$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.9953951.6%278 W · 261 L+20.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79b0…ea3bbacked Over58c260$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.815154.3%82 W · 69 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Under51c222$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.781,15153.7%618 W · 533 L-41.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1062,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.