NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 238.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8eb9c3efee1bec29d4e09529eabe6d69f608961d885cdc4ff42cf0759cbf3346

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Feb 8, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $87,157
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $92,543

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,157 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	49c	11,429$5,650 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,779.13	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Over	50c	10,902$5,451 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,451	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under	50c	10,203$5,066 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,136.91	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over	47c	7,987$3,721 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,721.43	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e3a…3246backed Over	49c	6,551$3,210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,209.83	199	54.8%109 W · 90 L	+12.2wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4bd7…373ebacked Under	52c	6,476$3,368 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,108.48	93	50.5%47 W · 46 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Under	50c	6,000$3,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,000	1,194	48.8%583 W · 611 L	-22.7wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d11…c449backed Over	45c	5,547$2,501 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,501.02	94	40.4%38 W · 56 L	-5.3wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x605d…cec3backed Under	51c	4,847$2,472 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,374.92	154	50.6%78 W · 76 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x392c…0bb4backed Over	1c	4,800$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.24	116	37.9%44 W · 72 L	-10.1wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over	48c	4,736$2,263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,262.84	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x869f…7a8bbacked Over	52c	4,711$2,450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,449.85	40	52.5%21 W · 19 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe9c…0b14backed Under	55c	2,823$1,552 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,270.58	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	50c	2,769$1,372 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,371.78	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc617…a854backed Under	53c	2,546$1,362 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,184.35	426	48.1%205 W · 221 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3860…0efcbacked Under	51c	2,302$1,174 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,128.22	129	50.4%65 W · 64 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4c9…617dbacked Over	49c	1,224$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	113	51.3%58 W · 55 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under	50c	1,164$582 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$581.99	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over	48c	1,036$497 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$497.06	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over	48c	1,035$494 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$493.53	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1997…2e36backed Under	50c	969.69$485 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$484.85	187	47.1%88 W · 99 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	49c	895.06$437 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$436.68	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3920…23e7backed Over	48c	670$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$321.6	304	52.6%160 W · 144 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Under	59c	589.25$347 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$242.22	1,522	49.6%755 W · 767 L	+27.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d37…5b73backed Under	68c	586.4$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$186.4	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-3.0wins	-0.15per pick	60cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x357b…0b65backed Under	57c	526.32$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$226.32	271	58.3%158 W · 113 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over	28c	352.43$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.55	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over	42c	251.25$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.46	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Over	49c	214.39$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.28	397	56.7%225 W · 172 L	+21.4wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under	53c	200$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94	410	52%213 W · 197 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Over	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	634	47.5%301 W · 333 L	-19.8wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb227…8809backed Over	50c	198.14$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	111	57.7%64 W · 47 L	+7.4wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc0d…78a5backed Over	46c	194.78$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.6	38	31.6%12 W · 26 L	-6.5wins	-0.17per pick	49cpaid	-36%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Under	58c	172.57$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.57	1,444	58.1%839 W · 605 L	+13.5wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Over	48c	167.71$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.5	666	46.8%312 W · 354 L	-29.6wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-11%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over	50c	163.54$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.77	1,003	51%512 W · 491 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Under	54c	134.18$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.78	332	58.7%195 W · 137 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e78…70c7backed Over	50c	133.9$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.95	329	52.9%174 W · 155 L	+9.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Under	50c	104$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52	911	48.1%438 W · 473 L	-11.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47e5…9b73backed Under	53c	100$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47	425	51.3%218 W · 207 L	-7.2wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd44d…389dbacked Under	53c	100$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47	413	54%223 W · 190 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad08…67a5backed Under	57c	97.65$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.99	10	60%6 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6533…0f9cbacked Under	57c	96.49$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.49	493	58.6%289 W · 204 L	+9.3wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7157…7ba4backed Under	52c	96.15$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.15	232	46.1%107 W · 125 L	+7.1wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ba3…8cb2backed Over	52c	90$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.8	97	58.8%57 W · 40 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Over	49c	85.71$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	874	51.5%450 W · 424 L	+15.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5db5…5df8backed Over	50c	83.98$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.99	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-2.2wins	-0.12per pick	51cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1084…744abacked Under	55c	54.55$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.55	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe88b…fa5abacked Over	56c	50$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	432	46.1%199 W · 233 L	-4.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b1c…2c38backed Under	51c	49.02$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.02	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Under	53c	47.96$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.54	1,046	51.1%534 W · 512 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b41…01c7backed Over	46c	42.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.53	538	39.4%212 W · 326 L	-26.8wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x82d0…60a1backed Under	51c	39.22$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.22	146	43.8%64 W · 82 L	-8.7wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed Over	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.89	336	53.9%181 W · 155 L	+13.4wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x64aa…7f42backed Under	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	57	49.1%28 W · 29 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x63dd…c279backed Under	52c	36.44$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.49	92	59.8%55 W · 37 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Under	56c	35.71$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.71	954	52.3%499 W · 455 L	-17.4wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee07…3573backed Over	57c	35.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	71	59.2%42 W · 29 L	+3.0wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6c4…c5dbbacked Under	57c	35.09$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.09	65	49.2%32 W · 33 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Under	51c	35.05$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.03	950	47.2%448 W · 502 L	-28.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd84…9f62backed Under	51c	34.2$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.76	143	52.4%75 W · 68 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1727…629dbacked Over	46c	30.63$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.09	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-2.2wins	-0.19per pick	52cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6af2…8f5ebacked Under	53c	27.7$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.9	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8557…4e7abacked Under	72c	27.69$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.62	189	57.1%108 W · 81 L	+12.7wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xca4a…338abacked Under	62c	26.86$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.34	58	55.2%32 W · 26 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdd8…d73bbacked Under	53c	26$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.22	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8996…15efbacked Over	54c	25.51$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.67	243	30.5%74 W · 169 L	-15.4wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Over	53c	25.25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.38	543	51.6%280 W · 263 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaf1…0b3dbacked Under	56c	25$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11	37	54.1%20 W · 17 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over	53c	22.33$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.75	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6082…6ce2backed Under	52c	21.15$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.15	65	61.5%40 W · 25 L	+5.4wins	+0.08per pick	53cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0ee1…268bbacked Over	50c	20.98$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.49	534	53.4%285 W · 249 L	+19.0wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 238.5this page
1H Spread: Heat (-6.5)Heat won
Alexandre Sarr: Points O/U 16.5No won
Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 16.5No won
Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
Bilal Coulibaly: Points O/U 10.5No won
Bub Carrington: Assists O/U 5.5No won
Heat vs. WizardsHeat won
Heat vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineHeat won
Heat vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
Heat vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5Under won
Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 235.5Under won
Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 236.5Under won
Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5Under won
Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 241.5Under won
Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 243.5Under won
Justin Champagnie: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 4.5No won
Spread: Heat (-10.5)Heat won
Spread: Heat (-11.5)Heat won
Spread: Heat (-12.5)Heat won
Spread: Heat (-13.5)Heat won
Spread: Heat (-20.5)Heat won
Spread: Heat (-22.5)Heat won
Spread: Heat (-24.5)Heat won
Spread: Heat (-27.5)Heat won
Spread: Heat (-31.5)Wizards won
Spread: Heat (-8.5)Heat won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 238.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event