NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12d36c6cd610d2e580a60d7a6ce343abe80248b28532d32ec0b8cda1920ed15f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $209,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $209,865
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $209,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Over | 53c | 161,773$85,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85,319.7 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 47c | 100,000$47,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53,000 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 48c | 45,113$21,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,608.17 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd7…373ebacked Under | 50c | 17,604$8,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,842.89 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Under | 50c | 10,642$5,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,321 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 9,103$4,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,587.97 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Under | 48c | 5,250$2,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,730 | 1,194 | 48.8%583 W · 611 L | -22.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 49c | 3,354$1,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,632.42 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 50c | 3,006$1,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,492.86 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3860…0efcbacked Over | 51c | 2,093$1,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,067.52 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 2,034$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.97 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 47c | 1,884$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,004.57 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 58c | 1,750$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 43c | 1,733$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995.2 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…b7b7backed Under | 48c | 1,355$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.6 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1997…2e36backed Under | 48c | 1,296$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.92 | 187 | 47.1%88 W · 99 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…f708backed Over | 51c | 1,176$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 194 | 45.4%88 W · 106 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 50c | 678.2$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.67 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 50c | 499.03$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.85 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 51c | 468.19$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.98 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x347c…525abacked Under | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Over | 51c | 316.9$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.04 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cd…61a6backed Under | 49c | 307.04$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.54 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Under | 48c | 296.15$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81b7…bd2abacked Under | 67c | 230$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.9 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…617dbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0d…78a5backed Over | 48c | 194.98$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.59 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -6.5wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -36%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 46c | 160.51$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.82 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…abd4backed Over | 55c | 111.45$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1c…2c38backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe09c…d04fbacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d57…2b4ebacked Under | 48c | 71.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 539 | 45.3%244 W · 295 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x137e…20d7backed Under | 48c | 67.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | -14.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed Under | 49c | 55.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 628 | 44.9%282 W · 346 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…9f62backed Under | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f61…4e52backed Over | 52c | 47.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 49c | 45.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 927 | 50.6%469 W · 458 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82d0…60a1backed Under | 49c | 41.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5abb…5a2fbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 47c | 36.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x230b…1e27backed Over | 51c | 35.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c4…c5dbbacked Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1084…744abacked Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…c356backed Under | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 412 | 51%210 W · 202 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8557…4e7abacked Under | 69c | 27.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 189 | 57.1%108 W · 81 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ca…3848backed Under | 49c | 23.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-6.5)Heat won
- Alexandre Sarr: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Bilal Coulibaly: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Bub Carrington: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Heat vs. WizardsHeat won
- Heat vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Heat vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Heat vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5Under won
- Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 235.5Under won
- Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 236.5Under won
- Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 238.5Under won
- Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 241.5Under won
- Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 243.5Under won
- Justin Champagnie: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Heat (-10.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-11.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-12.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-13.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-20.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-22.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-24.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-27.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-31.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.