TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Heat (-10.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Heatof Heat, Wizards
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$66,362
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$68,418

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,362 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5227…f9bdbacked Heat58c14,789$8,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,217.0510252.9%54 W · 48 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Wizards44c7,942$3,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,472.329,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bde…ca3abacked Heat53c7,424$3,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,489.282462.5%15 W · 9 L+3.1wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5083…9cbdbacked Wizards47c7,424$3,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,489.281040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Wizards43c3,814$1,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,631.234,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae82…faf0backed Heat54c3,711$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,710.915849.4%78 W · 80 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1997…2e36backed Wizards48c2,740$1,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,315.1618747.1%88 W · 99 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f69…1ffebacked Wizards48c2,250$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,080850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x190a…6ae2backed Heat52c2,250$1,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,079.771266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+35%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Wizards43c2,184$932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932.254,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Heat61c1,500$914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.0448957.5%281 W · 208 L+2.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid+2.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Wizards46c1,403$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.852,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd306…ac40backed Wizards44c1,373$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.235339.6%21 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Wizards41c1,362$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.483,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Heat54c1,200$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.0189050.4%449 W · 441 L+4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Heat52c1,148$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.22,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Wizards41c1,119$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.824942.2%105 W · 144 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Wizards40c1,058$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.061,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x899a…2a22backed Wizards50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50017241.9%72 W · 100 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Heat60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40095641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Heat59c999.99$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41047856.7%271 W · 207 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Heat52c728$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.442,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Heat59c674.95$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.951,38954.9%762 W · 627 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94d8…8835backed Heat60c661.43$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.4313464.2%86 W · 48 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6fa0…d504backed Wizards40c427.5$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1718350.6%42 W · 41 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Wizards42c393.07$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.533,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x986c…dbc6backed Heat54c370.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.3747651.7%246 W · 230 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Heat61c345.37$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.371,44458.1%839 W · 605 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Wizards46c339.73$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.85,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Wizards50c315.75$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.8250651.2%259 W · 247 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64aa…7f42backed Wizards61c262.66$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1605749.1%28 W · 29 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Heat59c250$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.585147.5%404 W · 447 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Wizards40c245.68$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.098,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc63…f1c7backed Heat52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9650653.2%269 W · 237 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5974…2a69backed Wizards50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003953.8%21 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f0f…a571backed Heat52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968339.8%33 W · 50 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Wizards46c200$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9191148.1%438 W · 473 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e4b…1ff9backed Heat52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3116347.2%77 W · 86 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Heat52c192.3$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.363447.5%301 W · 333 L-19.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Heat56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5761957.5%356 W · 263 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xed3f…0ab8backed Wizards41c176$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.168749.4%43 W · 44 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Wizards47c168.2$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.955,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Wizards11c156.22$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2683039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5124…91bbbacked Wizards39c150$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.535444.6%158 W · 196 L+1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed Wizards48c148.32$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5947045.1%212 W · 258 L-10.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Heat49c126.39$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.642,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd14…5ab9backed Wizards39c116$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2410143.6%44 W · 57 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Wizards44c107.98$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5162541.9%262 W · 363 L-32.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe872…fd21backed Wizards50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5014036.4%51 W · 89 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc653…bb8cbacked Heat53c94.49$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.4940960.6%248 W · 161 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3f3…9b44backed Wizards42c72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.242365.2%15 W · 8 L+5.2wins+0.23per pick42cpaid+63.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd227…0e69backed Heat60c66.67$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.675869%40 W · 18 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+12.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xba88…ec75backed Wizards49c66.02$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.353243.8%14 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Wizards42c61.61$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8195047.2%448 W · 502 L-28.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6533…0f9cbacked Heat60c59.85$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.8549358.6%289 W · 204 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfacf…e97abacked Heat60c56$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.563751.4%19 W · 18 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Wizards43c55.73$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.741,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Heat57c53.21$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9457657.8%333 W · 243 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b1c…2c38backed Wizards48c52.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Wizards48c47.98$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0366646.8%312 W · 354 L-29.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xed95…889cbacked Heat46c45.73$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6119750.3%99 W · 98 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8996…15efbacked Wizards41c42.26$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2824330.5%74 W · 169 L-15.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-30.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x972c…c2e2backed Wizards60c41.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251883.3%15 W · 3 L+4.8wins+0.27per pick56cpaid+54%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x82d0…60a1backed Wizards49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014643.8%64 W · 82 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Wizards59c39.3$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0690357%515 W · 388 L+40.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Heat51c38$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.623,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36b7…5324backed Heat53c37.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.743348.5%16 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Wizards40c37.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1550948.5%247 W · 262 L+2.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Wizards40c36.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6639756.7%225 W · 172 L+21.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Heat60c35$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141,01851.6%525 W · 493 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab2e…8b4bbacked Heat59c34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.943860.5%23 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Heat62c32.42$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4233258.7%195 W · 137 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d1b…854dbacked Heat59c32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.121968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.1wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+27.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Heat52c31.9$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3165542.9%281 W · 374 L+17.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Wizards48c31.9$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3119051.6%98 W · 92 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3207…86d9backed Wizards40c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125731.6%18 W · 39 L-6.9wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-28.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4e48…c958backed Heat59c29$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.893857.9%22 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebfe…bdd0backed Heat56c28.53$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.554264.3%27 W · 15 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd544…cbf0backed Heat55c27.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.27450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34b…2f86backed Heat59c26$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.664062.5%25 W · 15 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfaac…1045backed Heat61c23$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.975448.1%26 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08f1…196ebacked Heat53c22.64$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6416543.6%72 W · 93 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ed9…ed83backed Heat55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ef…0b77backed Heat62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.61338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07a4…be3abacked Heat59c19$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.793161.3%19 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+12.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf104…d34cbacked Wizards55c18.97$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4913850%69 W · 69 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3d…b56cbacked Heat59c18.17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4237344.2%165 W · 208 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b5f…b793backed Heat61c18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.022850%14 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34b2…cec2backed Heat61c18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.023351.5%17 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaa3…5f73backed Heat64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.632948.3%14 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.