NBA · resolved market
Spread: Heat (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5977b4c04d9d79516445a391db64ffe3917e1dabbfd749a5449332ff5882e8d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Heat, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $457,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $523,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $457,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5877…d894backed Wizards | 48c | 200,000$96,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96,000 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Heat | 52c | 179,788$93,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86,298.02 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Wizards | 49c | 115,005$56,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56,200.09 | 545 | 39.6%216 W · 329 L | -28.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Heat | 51c | 60,000$30,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,400 | 431 | 48.7%210 W · 221 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ab…9723backed Wizards | 49c | 36,973$17,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,966.62 | 603 | 51.4%310 W · 293 L | +16.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Heat | 51c | 35,459$18,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,286.47 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Heat | 52c | 26,858$13,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,010.34 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Heat | 51c | 15,826$8,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,766.96 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3051…2d5bbacked Wizards | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Heat | 52c | 7,971$4,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,825.91 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Heat | 52c | 7,147$3,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,421.66 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Heat | 54c | 4,630$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,129.8 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Heat | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 461 | 45.6%210 W · 251 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Heat | 51c | 3,871$1,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,896.71 | 1,194 | 48.8%583 W · 611 L | -22.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf154…27e3backed Heat | 52c | 3,846$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,846.15 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Heat | 51c | 2,958$1,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,449.42 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710c…8eeabacked Heat | 52c | 2,623$1,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,258.97 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59f4…c1f1backed Wizards | 49c | 2,449$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Wizards | 48c | 2,060$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.8 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Heat | 53c | 1,596$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.23 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Heat | 51c | 1,579$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.48 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…2d1abacked Heat | 56c | 1,500$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 489 | 57.5%281 W · 208 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Wizards | 46c | 1,171$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.76 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Wizards | 44c | 1,018$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.91 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…69e0backed Wizards | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 387 | 50.4%195 W · 192 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabde…d41fbacked Wizards | 49c | 954.9$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.9 | 419 | 47.7%200 W · 219 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Heat | 51c | 906.8$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.33 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Heat | 52c | 865.38$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.38 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Heat | 53c | 721.06$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.9 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Wizards | 48c | 374.84$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.38 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Wizards | 50c | 320.67$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 238 | 47.1%112 W · 126 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Wizards | 53c | 301.89$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 217 | 43.8%95 W · 122 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Heat | 52c | 296.91$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.52 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Heat | 51c | 277$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.73 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Wizards | 49c | 235.58$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.28 | 685 | 42.6%292 W · 393 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b0…ea3bbacked Heat | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 151 | 54.3%82 W · 69 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Heat | 47c | 179.79$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.29 | 558 | 46.8%261 W · 297 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa0…7191backed Heat | 51c | 179.79$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.1 | 123 | 49.6%61 W · 62 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Heat | 53c | 179.78$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.5 | 927 | 50.6%469 W · 458 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x565a…7fb5backed Wizards | 48c | 160.5$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Wizards | 46c | 154.28$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.97 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Heat | 53c | 140$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 470 | 45.1%212 W · 258 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Heat | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf24…1208backed Wizards | 19c | 98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82f7…4bf0backed Wizards | 48c | 82.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Heat | 54c | 69.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 506 | 51.2%259 W · 247 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Wizards | 52c | 68.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 408 | 49%200 W · 208 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0152…b455backed Wizards | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 660 | 46.4%306 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Heat | 52c | 53.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff7…9ab6backed Heat | 52c | 50.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 454 | 60.4%274 W · 180 L | +21.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5db5…5df8backed Wizards | 49c | 46.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Wizards | 49c | 44.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…ef6bbacked Wizards | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d57…2b4ebacked Heat | 52c | 39.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 539 | 45.3%244 W · 295 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Wizards | 47c | 39.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…5992backed Heat | 54c | 37.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 378 | 52.9%200 W · 178 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…1948backed Heat | 53c | 36.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Wizards | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Heat | 43c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Heat | 53c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 410 | 48.3%198 W · 212 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Wizards | 45c | 27.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x137e…20d7backed Heat | 51c | 23.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | -14.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…a380backed Wizards | 49c | 21.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe792…80bcbacked Wizards | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcbc…93a8backed Heat | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Heat (-12.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-6.5)Heat won
- Alexandre Sarr: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Bilal Coulibaly: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Bub Carrington: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Heat vs. WizardsHeat won
- Heat vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Heat vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Heat vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5Under won
- Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 235.5Under won
- Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 236.5Under won
- Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5Under won
- Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 238.5Under won
- Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 241.5Under won
- Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 243.5Under won
- Justin Champagnie: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Heat (-10.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-11.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-13.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-20.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-22.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-24.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-27.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-31.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.