NBA · resolved market

Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 220.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7a5a7829cf105e9c7064965e274f332dddcf541621ff7a34372ce128700acd9

Rebuilt 18 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Feb 8, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $191,880
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $191,771

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $191,880 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x44d4…1970backed Under	52c	65,942$34,141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31,801.19	167	52.1%87 W · 80 L	+7.6wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over	48c	59,086$28,617 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28,617.5	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Under	50c	22,086$11,043 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,043.21	443	52.4%232 W · 211 L	+10.3wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62ba…ef56backed Over	50c	19,524$9,825 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,824.96	43	58.1%25 W · 18 L	+2.6wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x92d8…0924backed Under	50c	15,750$7,875 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,875	240	45.4%109 W · 131 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b5e…83f8backed Over	53c	12,745$6,755 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,754.72	116	56.9%66 W · 50 L	+10.6wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+17%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Over	50c	12,000$6,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,000	1,556	52.8%822 W · 734 L	+40.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4bd7…373ebacked Under	47c	10,714$5,034 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,679.38	93	50.5%47 W · 46 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	50c	7,711$3,824 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,887.61	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Over	49c	6,122$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,000	1,194	48.8%583 W · 611 L	-22.7wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over	50c	6,000$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,000	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Over	49c	6,000$2,940 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,939.99	584	49.7%290 W · 294 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	53c	5,396$2,850 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,545.56	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35ac…92a7backed Over	48c	5,000$2,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,399.99	121	44.6%54 W · 67 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f2f…be86backed Under	46c	4,416$2,031 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,384.64	133	57.9%77 W · 56 L	+6.1wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Under	47c	4,200$1,974 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,226	715	47.7%341 W · 374 L	-26.9wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Under	50c	3,857$1,928 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,928.4	377	47.5%179 W · 198 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Under	52c	3,846$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,846.15	1,910	54.3%1,038 W · 872 L	+25.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Over	49c	3,731$1,828 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,828.06	824	42.2%348 W · 476 L	-3.7wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over	50c	3,159$1,578 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,578.07	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa117…a311backed Over	51c	3,028$1,535 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,534.96	33	51.5%17 W · 16 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over	50c	2,798$1,401 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,400.55	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Over	50c	2,700$1,350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,350	657	50.1%329 W · 328 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Under	50c	2,377$1,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,176.73	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Over	1c	1,500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	679	21.4%145 W · 534 L	+32.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+33.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over	50c	813.58$407 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$406.79	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3dc1…e318backed Over	48c	501.52$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.87	530	43.8%232 W · 298 L	-25.4wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-12%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x57c6…fde6backed Over	50c	440$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec56…dd09backed Over	49c	400$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196	283	48.8%138 W · 145 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57b9…e9b4backed Over	50c	400$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	253	47%119 W · 134 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e70…9a38backed Over	49c	326.53$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.9wins	-0.38per pick	58cpaid	-65.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x64aa…7f42backed Over	56c	320.7$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.59	57	49.1%28 W · 29 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa58c…3a5cbacked Over	51c	320.18$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.29	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd38…50c3backed Over	51c	300$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153	24	50%12 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bc4…7a41backed Under	52c	270.54$139 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$131.08	39	46.2%18 W · 21 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over	51c	261.45$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.73	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Under	51c	215.69$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.69	478	56.7%271 W · 207 L	+11.6wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Under	51c	200$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98	1,197	47.5%569 W · 628 L	-32.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8c6…9211backed Over	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	148	47.3%70 W · 78 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed Over	48c	199.86$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.93	258	46.9%121 W · 137 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d8e…3d55backed Under	51c	196.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.08	125	41.6%52 W · 73 L	-9.3wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Over	29c	168.33$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	558	46.8%261 W · 297 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Under	50c	127$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.5	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Under	50c	120$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	451	46.1%208 W · 243 L	-10.4wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over	50c	120$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7226…873dbacked Over	50c	113.62$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.81	38	36.8%14 W · 24 L	-4.2wins	-0.11per pick	48cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Over	50c	100.81$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.41	911	48.1%438 W · 473 L	-11.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Over	54c	100$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	2,657	49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L	+42.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Under	47c	100$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53	950	47.2%448 W · 502 L	-28.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbaa5…3be4backed Over	51c	98.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc525…daf0backed Over	49c	90$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.05	56	44.6%25 W · 31 L	-2.8wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under	63c	89.21$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.31	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8aab…8d40backed Over	48c	88.49$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.8	164	43.9%72 W · 92 L	-9.4wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x137e…20d7backed Over	48c	88.49$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.8	150	40%60 W · 90 L	-14.1wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0d21…08d3backed Over	50c	81.19$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.44	251	43%108 W · 143 L	-13.6wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4fb0…3182backed Over	50c	79.85$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.09	213	57.7%123 W · 90 L	+10.3wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b06…10a7backed Over	51c	78.43$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	85	58.8%50 W · 35 L	+8.1wins	+0.10per pick	49cpaid	+17%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf592…9872backed Under	51c	78.43$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.43	116	51.7%60 W · 56 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1c7…d11ebacked Under	50c	72.16$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.08	42	57.1%24 W · 18 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Under	50c	69.96$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.33	1,018	51.6%525 W · 493 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8775…a0fdbacked Under	52c	69.31$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.58	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2696…c031backed Over	49c	67$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.83	61	49.2%30 W · 31 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27f2…d106backed Under	52c	63.26$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.65	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Over	50c	59.08$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.45	927	50.6%469 W · 458 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed Over	40c	59$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.75	282	43.3%122 W · 160 L	-13.1wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Over	50c	58.79$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.4	762	50.4%384 W · 378 L	+3.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xa33c…1b33backed Over	49c	52.26$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.73	628	44.9%282 W · 346 L	-21.3wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1ce…b027backed Over	51c	50.98$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05f9…f351backed Over	50c	48$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	410	48.3%198 W · 212 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbec4…637fbacked Under	51c	40.72$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.95	531	49.3%262 W · 269 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ab0…f2d7backed Over	50c	40.54$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.35	204	48.5%99 W · 105 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02ec…5412backed Under	51c	39.22$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.22	273	59%161 W · 112 L	+8.5wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b2c…dac5backed Over	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	423	48.5%205 W · 218 L	-9.8wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3494…04f4backed Over	50c	36$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	350	49.4%173 W · 177 L	-4.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba88…ec75backed Under	47c	34.12$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.23	32	43.8%14 W · 18 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	37cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58ac…7e1fbacked Over	51c	31.31$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.97	33	33.3%11 W · 22 L	-3.3wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-31.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x859d…3cecbacked Over	48c	30.13$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.46	508	41.7%212 W · 296 L	-11.2wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Under	50c	29.41$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.71	576	57.8%333 W · 243 L	+13.0wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d57…2b4ebacked Over	50c	28$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.04	539	45.3%244 W · 295 L	-9.6wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed Over	51c	26.47$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	415	56.9%236 W · 179 L	-7.7wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc56b…fe0abacked Over	50c	23.66$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.83	279	43%120 W · 159 L	-5.8wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6fc…07e3backed Under	48c	22.36$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.7	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over	52c	20.83$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.83	5,844	46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L	+32.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18dd…6bf2backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	81	32.1%26 W · 55 L	-10.1wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6263…f8e1backed Over	54c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	33	54.5%18 W · 15 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	58cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8996…15efbacked Under	68c	16$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.2	243	30.5%74 W · 169 L	-15.4wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 220.5this page
1H Spread: Lakers (-0.5)Warriors won
Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
Austin Reaves: Points O/U 23.5No won
Austin Reaves: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
Jake LaRavia: Points O/U 9.5No won
LeBron James: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
LeBron James: Points O/U 23.5No won
LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
Marcus Smart: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
Moses Moody: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
Rui Hachimura: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
Spread: Lakers (-1.5)Lakers won
Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Lakers won
Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Lakers won
Warriors vs. LakersLakers won
Warriors vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
Warriors vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 107.5Under won
Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 221.5Under won
Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 222.5Under won
Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 223.5Under won
Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 224.5Under won
Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 225.5Under won
Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 226.5Under won
Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 227.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 220.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event