TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Warriors vs. Lakers: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Warriorsof Warriors, Lakers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$913
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$918

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $913 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Warriors54c432.96$234 inWon+$199.215,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d4c…41c4backed Warriors46c354.01$163 inWon+$191.172070%14 W · 6 L+3.9wins+0.19per pick51cpaid+40.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe88b…fa5abacked Lakers46c240$110 inLost-$110.443246.1%199 W · 233 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a76…b30fbacked Lakers44c140.91$62 inLost-$6221642.1%91 W · 125 L-15.6wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-15.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c2a…e715backed Lakers54c93.1$50 inLost-$50.271656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f03…ed48backed Lakers54c88.64$48 inLost-$47.871662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+22.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcdfb…ed19backed Lakers54c86.15$47 inLost-$46.521346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe43c…ccd5backed Lakers54c86.12$47 inLost-$46.51656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Warriors50c46.24$23 inWon+$23.2466646.8%312 W · 354 L-29.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Lakers51c44.84$23 inLost-$22.8757444.1%253 W · 321 L-20.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.