NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 223.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5867870276dc6e5ba35939e96e21b295c9d4be76f7f4aec93f0b5911355fc897
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,482
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,483
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,482 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 53c | 15,104$8,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,098.88 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…47efbacked Over | 44c | 13,852$6,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,094.88 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 47c | 12,268$5,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,766 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…f688backed Under | 52c | 9,571$4,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,594.19 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 48c | 7,124$3,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,403.62 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 56c | 6,871$3,821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,050.28 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 53c | 3,922$2,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,843.34 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd29…a74abacked Under | 61c | 2,935$1,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140.73 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 39c | 1,772$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.2 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd7…373ebacked Under | 54c | 1,638$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.85 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 45c | 1,244$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.8 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 1,051$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.72 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 45c | 752.77$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.8 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 38c | 736.75$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.96 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…a1b0backed Over | 48c | 408.33$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 46c | 382$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.72 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Under | 53c | 318.43$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.66 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 39c | 303.61$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.89 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 52c | 241.77$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.16 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Under | 53c | 188.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.67 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 45c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Over | 47c | 149.2$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.12 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 43c | 139.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Over | 49c | 132.82$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.03 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Over | 46c | 120.37$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.37 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 106.43$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 27c | 104.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 558 | 46.8%261 W · 297 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Over | 47c | 104.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x474f…9650backed Over | 44c | 100.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 60c | 91.45$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e78…70c7backed Under | 53c | 60.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 329 | 52.9%174 W · 155 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 53c | 58.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Over | 44c | 56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Under | 53c | 49.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Over | 42c | 40.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Under | 60c | 37.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 408 | 49%200 W · 208 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Under | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d57…2b4ebacked Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 539 | 45.3%244 W · 295 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Under | 54c | 29.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 409 | 60.6%248 W · 161 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…08d3backed Over | 48c | 25.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 251 | 43%108 W · 143 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 223.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-0.5)Warriors won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Jake LaRavia: Points O/U 9.5No won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 23.5No won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Marcus Smart: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Moses Moody: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Rui Hachimura: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Lakers (-1.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Lakers won
- Warriors vs. LakersLakers won
- Warriors vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 107.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 220.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 221.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 222.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 224.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 225.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 226.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 227.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.