NBA · resolved market
Spread: Lakers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2697d6de32673996c167e84bb15aba82fd770182a07a87660f6381e03fee5192
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Lakers, Warriors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Warriors | 49c | 45,000$22,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,049.99 | 726 | 48.3%351 W · 375 L | +30.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe56d…2b65backed Lakers | 51c | 28,881$14,826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,055.41 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Lakers | 51c | 24,515$12,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,012.54 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Lakers | 51c | 6,653$3,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,260.05 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57e…bbd6backed Warriors | 49c | 4,650$2,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,293.06 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 48c | 4,397$2,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,110.41 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Warriors | 48c | 4,167$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Warriors | 30c | 3,013$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.09 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Lakers | 73c | 2,976$2,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.52 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Lakers | 52c | 2,787$1,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,337.76 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Warriors | 48c | 2,541$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219.15 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Warriors | 49c | 2,382$1,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,168.43 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Warriors | 49c | 2,326$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.55 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Lakers | 51c | 1,500$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730 | 629 | 48.6%306 W · 323 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Warriors | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.16 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…617dbacked Lakers | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…66abbacked Lakers | 51c | 838.99$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.99 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Lakers | 52c | 791.03$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.7 | 593 | 47%279 W · 314 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Warriors | 48c | 443.78$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.01 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Warriors | 33c | 226.92$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 558 | 46.8%261 W · 297 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Warriors | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Warriors | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Lakers | 52c | 192.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.3 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Warriors | 48c | 157.27$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.29 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Lakers | 51c | 155.85$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.37 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Lakers | 51c | 125$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Lakers | 51c | 117.64$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.64 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…7be6backed Lakers | 53c | 110$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf891…d3b6backed Lakers | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f28…1b16backed Lakers | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Lakers | 52c | 92.31$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.31 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Warriors | 44c | 90.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Warriors | 48c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Warriors | 49c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 239 | 46.4%111 W · 128 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfae1…7bb6backed Lakers | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Warriors | 47c | 43.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Lakers | 52c | 41.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a5…fb44backed Lakers | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 125 | 61.6%77 W · 48 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e78…70c7backed Lakers | 52c | 35.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 329 | 52.9%174 W · 155 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Lakers | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5de…a312backed Warriors | 50c | 27.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Lakers | 52c | 25.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…08d3backed Warriors | 48c | 21.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 251 | 43%108 W · 143 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Warriors | 48c | 21.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3754…2d4ebacked Lakers | 51c | 19.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8557…4e7abacked Lakers | 70c | 15.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 189 | 57.1%108 W · 81 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lakers (-1.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-0.5)Warriors won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Jake LaRavia: Points O/U 9.5No won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 23.5No won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Marcus Smart: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Moses Moody: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Rui Hachimura: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Lakers won
- Warriors vs. LakersLakers won
- Warriors vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 107.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 220.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 221.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 222.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 223.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 224.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 225.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 226.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 227.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.