NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 222.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd248dbff241fd725c7d714dfac62be449a9442795909a27de92d713d6746a0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,435
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,687
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,435 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bd7…373ebacked Under | 52c | 25,680$13,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,423.86 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 10,751$5,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,197.14 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…b7b7backed Under | 50c | 6,621$3,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,310.5 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Under | 52c | 4,132$2,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,983.43 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…cf8abacked Over | 49c | 4,074$1,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,996.16 | 247 | 44.1%109 W · 138 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 52c | 3,809$1,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980.68 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Over | 44c | 3,612$1,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,596 | 249 | 42.2%105 W · 144 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Under | 53c | 3,500$1,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,645 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 54c | 3,209$1,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,485.85 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 48c | 2,985$1,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,432.88 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cdc…b83fbacked Over | 49c | 2,922$1,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,432 | 209 | 48.8%102 W · 107 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x622e…07abbacked Over | 46c | 2,226$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024 | 173 | 56.1%97 W · 76 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 48c | 1,982$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.39 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 58c | 1,686$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.31 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 47c | 1,558$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.49 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 42c | 1,364$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.02 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 48c | 1,272$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.16 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 48c | 1,042$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.36 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 49c | 1,003$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.65 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Over | 47c | 828.99$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.62 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Over | 46c | 766$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.36 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda2e…8904backed Over | 46c | 565.22$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 47c | 350.25$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.62 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Over | 50c | 290$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b0…ea3bbacked Under | 48c | 209.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.19 | 151 | 54.3%82 W · 69 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Under | 52c | 199.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.99 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c61…4fa6backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Over | 52c | 192.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 30c | 153.37$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 558 | 46.8%261 W · 297 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 135.41$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Over | 48c | 122.15$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Over | 47c | 104.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf26b…f3b8backed Over | 48c | 101.62$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…92febacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 555 | 33.5%186 W · 369 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 49c | 96.89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 503 | 51.5%259 W · 244 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Over | 48c | 69.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x440a…9599backed Over | 46c | 63.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 63c | 55.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57c9…9c9dbacked Over | 46c | 47.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…77ddbacked Over | 52c | 46.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc9…185bbacked Over | 48c | 45.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 292 | 47.9%140 W · 152 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Over | 52c | 39.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e5…52bebacked Over | 50c | 39.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 49c | 39.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 51c | 35.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over | 52c | 29.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b07…869abacked Under | 56c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…3a5dbacked Over | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 548 | 54.2%297 W · 251 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…08d3backed Over | 47c | 21.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 251 | 43%108 W · 143 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3754…2d4ebacked Under | 54c | 20.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…c356backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 412 | 51%210 W · 202 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Under | 63c | 17.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 408 | 49%200 W · 208 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 222.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-0.5)Warriors won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Jake LaRavia: Points O/U 9.5No won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 23.5No won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Marcus Smart: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Moses Moody: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Rui Hachimura: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Lakers (-1.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Lakers won
- Warriors vs. LakersLakers won
- Warriors vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 107.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 220.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 221.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 223.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 224.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 225.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 226.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 227.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.