NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 221.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50566f7c87881e1b43f19a70018c2dca61fd46ec58c0d55b3c08974db5dec0ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,185
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,185 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bd7…373ebacked Under | 50c | 29,917$14,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,071.16 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 9,762$5,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,752.81 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2f…be86backed Over | 47c | 8,400$3,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,948 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 52c | 5,426$2,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,804.37 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Over | 48c | 3,692$1,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,772 | 316 | 44.6%141 W · 175 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 15c | 3,675$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.43 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 47c | 3,644$1,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,712.68 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 47c | 3,613$1,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,697.88 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 50c | 2,782$1,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399.32 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x622e…07abbacked Over | 48c | 2,100$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008 | 173 | 56.1%97 W · 76 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9aa…67e1backed Over | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Under | 48c | 1,768$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.36 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 50c | 1,704$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.9 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 50c | 1,624$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.15 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Under | 53c | 1,519$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.87 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…0e0bbacked Over | 48c | 1,230$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.4 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 1,186$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.27 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 53c | 1,070$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.9 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 48c | 1,058$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.94 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 47c | 957.45$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e12…20e9backed Over | 48c | 862.5$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 50c | 862.36$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.18 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 52c | 834$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.32 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 51c | 636.5$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.88 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 48c | 502.37$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.11 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 76c | 412.68$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.51 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc0…099dbacked Under | 54c | 327.01$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.01 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Under | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 655 | 42.9%281 W · 374 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…fe0abacked Over | 48c | 272.04$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.58 | 279 | 43%120 W · 159 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…dd0ebacked Under | 54c | 244.17$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.32 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +8.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +24%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Over | 47c | 199.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaa…3ea5backed Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 226 | 55.3%125 W · 101 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 50c | 146.13$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.07 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 29c | 137.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 558 | 46.8%261 W · 297 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 48c | 132.74$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Over | 44c | 129.49$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 489 | 56.4%276 W · 213 L | +31.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 47c | 127.63$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Over | 50c | 126.3$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.17 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 58c | 125$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Over | 19c | 112.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 243 | 30.5%74 W · 169 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 77c | 102.19$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c7…d11ebacked Over | 50c | 102.03$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.09 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce5…3e52backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 70c | 91.54$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7492…6568backed Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 319 | 55.2%176 W · 143 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Under | 53c | 59.71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa30…c7abbacked Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 114 | 48.2%55 W · 59 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…c356backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 412 | 51%210 W · 202 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Under | 56c | 45.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 408 | 49%200 W · 208 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 67c | 40.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3754…2d4ebacked Under | 53c | 38.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Under | 53c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff7…9ab6backed Under | 52c | 32.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 454 | 60.4%274 W · 180 L | +21.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 46c | 32.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Over | 47c | 30.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b07…869abacked Under | 53c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 47c | 25.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 50c | 22.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…08d3backed Over | 48c | 22.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 251 | 43%108 W · 143 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 221.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-0.5)Warriors won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Jake LaRavia: Points O/U 9.5No won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 23.5No won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Marcus Smart: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Moses Moody: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Rui Hachimura: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Lakers (-1.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Lakers won
- Warriors vs. LakersLakers won
- Warriors vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 107.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 220.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 222.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 223.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 224.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 225.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 226.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 227.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.