TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Qatar Total Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Jelena Ostapenko

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Ostapenkoof Alexandrova, Ostapenko
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$339,650
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$379,864

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $339,650 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 186 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa0f2…1848backed Alexandrova30c136,212$40,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,623.981,40442.8%601 W · 803 L-31.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Alexandrova2c18,193$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.8680938.8%314 W · 495 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x046c…2a9cbacked Ostapenko49c16,902$8,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,684.6335247.2%166 W · 186 L-23.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Ostapenko49c16,509$8,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,365.3611,66643.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L+22.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Ostapenko61c13,029$7,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,062.092,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fa9…c100backed Ostapenko32c10,000$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,799.9943051.2%220 W · 210 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Ostapenko55c8,020$4,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,647.172,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed Ostapenko33c7,360$2,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,957.1910443.3%45 W · 59 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd52…df69backed Alexandrova67c6,359$4,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,260.3626545.3%120 W · 145 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Ostapenko55c5,264$2,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,344.282,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Alexandrova68c5,016$3,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,411.276140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fef…5946backed Alexandrova26c3,433$907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9079761.9%60 W · 37 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Alexandrova68c3,078$2,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,092.8978452.9%415 W · 369 L+22.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Ostapenko41c3,070$1,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,824.612,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x58b3…653cbacked Ostapenko32c3,039$971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,067.9445036%162 W · 288 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Ostapenko33c3,030$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,030.4533137.2%123 W · 208 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-2.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1909…a2c9backed Alexandrova37c2,703$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005362.3%33 W · 20 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+14%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Ostapenko65c2,482$1,607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$874.253,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb77e…e668backed Alexandrova50c2,379$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20019846%91 W · 107 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93c8…adffbacked Ostapenko56c2,359$1,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,041.3426847%126 W · 142 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd120…19fcbacked Alexandrova71c2,168$1,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,529.4213652.9%72 W · 64 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45d9…a89abacked Alexandrova37c2,162$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80011123.4%26 W · 85 L-8.2wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-28.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Ostapenko63c2,156$1,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$797.621,09035.9%391 W · 699 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x67a7…86cebacked Alexandrova15c2,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006331.7%20 W · 43 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Alexandrova39c1,830$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.596,79236.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L-98.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb16…96b5backed Ostapenko37c1,816$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,151.9844448.9%217 W · 227 L-13.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Alexandrova26c1,684$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.182,06834.9%721 W · 1,347 L-44.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4173…d3edbacked Ostapenko37c1,596$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,007.0855646.4%258 W · 298 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Alexandrova60c1,509$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.67,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x713b…ee60backed Ostapenko35c1,475$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$957.75628.6%16 W · 40 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xde69…e82ebacked Alexandrova55c1,241$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.476756.7%38 W · 29 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+25.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa288…adbebacked Alexandrova19c1,092$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.513745.9%17 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-23.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dd6…8577backed Alexandrova50c1,029$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.8111242.9%48 W · 64 L-9.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb31e…c120backed Alexandrova44c985.71$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.7129854%161 W · 137 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Alexandrova63c905.3$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.296851.5%35 W · 33 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Ostapenko33c880.89$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.2922641.6%94 W · 132 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Ostapenko43c861.89$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.4949143%211 W · 280 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Alexandrova2c856.06$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.132,3317.9%183 W · 2,148 L-56.9wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x41da…0b58backed Alexandrova9c801.02$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.5812722%28 W · 99 L+9.9wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+55.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Alexandrova68c799.98$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.9927944.1%123 W · 156 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fab…708bbacked Ostapenko33c736.9$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.91,27630.4%388 W · 888 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…7295backed Alexandrova69c726.09$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50118663.4%118 W · 68 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Alexandrova68c672.99$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.941,03954.6%567 W · 472 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x695d…60d5backed Alexandrova45c666.67$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3007444.6%33 W · 41 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cde…6040backed Ostapenko48c627.07$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.0716665.7%109 W · 57 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Ostapenko64c625$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22553058.1%308 W · 222 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde44…cb51backed Ostapenko30c607.76$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.7613435.1%47 W · 87 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcf1…99d3backed Alexandrova72c568.1$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.0338652.3%202 W · 184 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed Alexandrova55c539.16$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.541,12350.3%565 W · 558 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Ostapenko44c532.22$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.42,15054.1%1,164 W · 986 L-1.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf74d…9930backed Ostapenko48c520.83$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.8326158.2%152 W · 109 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked Ostapenko33c512.12$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.1299139.9%395 W · 596 L-9.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98e9…8dbebacked Alexandrova45c481.24$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.929833.7%33 W · 65 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7509…d031backed Alexandrova53c470.56$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.32853.6%15 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick64cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a97…c1f9backed Ostapenko79c469.02$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.731145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-37%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0dd6…5f62backed Ostapenko34c449.79$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.8645457.9%263 W · 191 L-14.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9f8…e913backed Alexandrova67c447.76$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30019653.6%105 W · 91 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x480e…71e9backed Ostapenko61c409.84$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.8413560.7%82 W · 53 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc398…f446backed Ostapenko49c409.27$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.7396035.4%340 W · 620 L-40.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Ostapenko40c389.19$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.326,84048.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L+58.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1412…15d5backed Ostapenko35c373.98$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.322065%13 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Ostapenko60c363$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.4597046.6%452 W · 518 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Alexandrova62c337.36$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.5552037.7%196 W · 324 L-30.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-27.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Alexandrova71c333$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.4317867.4%120 W · 58 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c16…a5e3backed Ostapenko31c322.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.5838739.3%152 W · 235 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0ac…fd51backed Alexandrova37c313.19$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.8828444.7%127 W · 157 L+13.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x20c1…df04backed Ostapenko33c303.03$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.0318439.1%72 W · 112 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Ostapenko60c303$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.131,00846%464 W · 544 L-19.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Ostapenko77c300$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6846649.8%232 W · 234 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Alexandrova67c298.51$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20033241.6%138 W · 194 L-10.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Alexandrova66c298$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.6848552.8%256 W · 229 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ee…47c8backed Alexandrova65c291.43$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18820261.4%124 W · 78 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Alexandrova69c287.1$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.147552.4%249 W · 226 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Ostapenko35c285.71$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.7140141.9%168 W · 233 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7be1…200ebacked Ostapenko53c265.69$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.2125152.6%132 W · 119 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bde…3800backed Alexandrova70c257.14$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1804740.4%19 W · 28 L-8.6wins-0.18per pick59cpaid-37.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x7b7f…e826backed Ostapenko76c222.37$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.3769350.5%350 W · 343 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9351…ef0fbacked Alexandrova68c221$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.2810440.4%42 W · 62 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Ostapenko32c218$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.241,41441.1%581 W · 833 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e8d…e22dbacked Alexandrova68c212.59$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.0515343.8%67 W · 86 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Ostapenko32c206.17$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.1527331.5%86 W · 187 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1574…64c9backed Ostapenko32c200$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13647639.1%186 W · 290 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecae…b906backed Ostapenko43c200$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1151,02646.8%480 W · 546 L+14.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Alexandrova67c195.73$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.2916046.9%75 W · 85 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49ed…a2fbbacked Alexandrova67c195$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.6520043.5%87 W · 113 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33af…288abacked Ostapenko51c175.43$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.4624826.2%65 W · 183 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Alexandrova68c170.13$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11665949.3%325 W · 334 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Alexandrova70c170$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1191,68350.6%851 W · 832 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x623f…a4cdbacked Alexandrova59c169.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7211…c51bbacked Alexandrova70c169.32$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.73425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick62cpaid-61.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Alexandrova19c169$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.881,85244.5%825 W · 1,027 L-20.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x422c…9840backed Ostapenko29c165.34$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.3923429.9%70 W · 164 L-1.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2344…6ba3backed Ostapenko42c164.66$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.0810150.5%51 W · 50 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b50…87fbbacked Ostapenko31c161.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.298547.1%40 W · 45 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57e0…3878backed Alexandrova38c153.88$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.176842.6%29 W · 39 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+18.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcdd4…7696backed Ostapenko33c151.52$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.5243749%214 W · 223 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b2a…bc9bbacked Alexandrova67c149.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004346.5%20 W · 23 L-4.5wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-24.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Alexandrova69c144.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10073350.9%373 W · 360 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Ostapenko69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.931,85348.4%897 W · 956 L-32.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19f8…98f9backed Alexandrova70c142.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010862%67 W · 41 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.