Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Alexandrova vs Ostapenko
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ce1cdff0e4d072aa468a4d22dbba92b76dd8187735cad600daf489fd870dc2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ostapenkoof Alexandrova, Ostapenko
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,269
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,269 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Alexandrova | 19c | 199.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f97…a9b3backed Alexandrova | 27c | 176.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 262 | 27.9%73 W · 189 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…e6f5backed Ostapenko | 35c | 120$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Ostapenko | 62c | 96.38$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…0b4ebacked Ostapenko | 35c | 85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.25 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Ostapenko | 37c | 62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Alexandrova | 41c | 61.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…9305backed Ostapenko | 38c | 47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…1ddcbacked Alexandrova | 64c | 46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x959a…2325backed Ostapenko | 39c | 46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fed…23e5backed Alexandrova | 62c | 46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…b444backed Alexandrova | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7b…47e0backed Ostapenko | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 60cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e74…58e2backed Ostapenko | 39c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb66b…8751backed Alexandrova | 62c | 38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed Ostapenko | 41c | 37.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7613…8a5ebacked Ostapenko | 38c | 37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73cd…db85backed Alexandrova | 62c | 37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 63cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6724…0e17backed Ostapenko | 38c | 34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b92…3036backed Ostapenko | 38c | 34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 61cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Ostapenko | 31c | 33.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 272 | 31.3%85 W · 187 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1090…1503backed Alexandrova | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 61cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1315…d32ebacked Alexandrova | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.20per pick | 59cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb5…6a69backed Alexandrova | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…441fbacked Alexandrova | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c57…d1d7backed Ostapenko | 39c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +21%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…f487backed Alexandrova | 62c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d41…6989backed Alexandrova | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…c6ecbacked Alexandrova | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe826…cfe1backed Alexandrova | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x334c…01a1backed Alexandrova | 61c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecd8…1282backed Alexandrova | 62c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc366…443ebacked Alexandrova | 62c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x321d…7d0bbacked Alexandrova | 61c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e57…41f0backed Alexandrova | 65c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe16c…8bf3backed Alexandrova | 60c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebf…beaabacked Alexandrova | 63c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e21…4275backed Alexandrova | 62c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47aa…ab1cbacked Alexandrova | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…dd55backed Alexandrova | 62c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…51c4backed Alexandrova | 62c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef9…b5bfbacked Alexandrova | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Alexandrova vs Ostapenkothis page
- Alexandrova vs. Ostapenko: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Alexandrova vs. Ostapenko: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Alexandrova vs. Ostapenko: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Alexandrova vs. Ostapenko: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Qatar Total Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko won
- Set Handicap: Alexandrova (-1.5) vs Ostapenko (+1.5)Ostapenko won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.