Earnings · resolved market
Will Bank First (BFC) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x745ce7e964dd8c5949cceb57482d0d98f8e334a4dfdb2aad5b1238e6c4562ed2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6eaf…ee69backed No | 34c | 633.03$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc480…8d0dbacked Yes | 69c | 520.67$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7e87backed No | 36c | 273.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 31c | 234.67$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.75 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 47c | 232.75$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.05 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 17c | 207.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…7690backed Yes | 62c | 199.99$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 55c | 145.43$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.44 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4670…5f1cbacked No | 58c | 99.61$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 20c | 96.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 24c | 95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe9…c89bbacked Yes | 48c | 79.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 13c | 79.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefa6…d493backed No | 33c | 62.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe40…30f2backed Yes | 78c | 55.39$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 31c | 52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…e862backed No | 50c | 50.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1919…153cbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b1…f58fbacked Yes | 78c | 44.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…f5e1backed No | 30c | 44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 48c | 43.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed Yes | 62c | 32.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bf…d1f4backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac28…00e4backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee53…7d97backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf65f…4d71backed No | 49c | 21.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…acdabacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…3ea4backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed Yes | 72c | 15.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.