Earnings · resolved market
Will Procter & Gamble (PG) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa961d07661553768261adcaaf680a40d5da6e5bd3b4a6b060415d6999154b6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,602
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,602 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c4f…c6c6backed No | 2c | 6,209$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 3,351$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 464 | 14.2%66 W · 398 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe40…30f2backed No | 11c | 1,962$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 6c | 1,800$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 5c | 1,030$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.68 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…dc80backed No | 19c | 860$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 8c | 616.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 306 | 15%46 W · 260 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb204…6370backed No | 8c | 539.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 76c | 512.27$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.97 | 157 | 65%102 W · 55 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x650b…ebc3backed No | 3c | 472.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -59%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 10c | 351.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x78af…961cbacked No | 6c | 324.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…e0dbbacked No | 9c | 317.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 24c | 313.08$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.45 | 316 | 29.4%93 W · 223 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 6c | 299.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb65…3115backed No | 15c | 294.14$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 7c | 291.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…e6babacked No | 9c | 218$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50ba…1ef0backed No | 9c | 212.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x624f…8de3backed No | 15c | 200.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d21…df94backed No | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes | 77c | 199.99$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb782…bb54backed No | 11c | 183$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 14c | 166.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 17c | 154.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 213 | 41.3%88 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 8c | 150.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 23c | 149.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 13c | 141.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 582 | 39%227 W · 355 L | -25.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed No | 12c | 126.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…70a6backed No | 25c | 125$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +170%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed Yes | 79c | 113.43$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…af64backed No | 9c | 106.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f8…cb7bbacked No | 14c | 105.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd00b…38f9backed No | 10c | 100.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefd3…4dd3backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fe…4b2ebacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…dcd6backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 24c | 93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3799…cd36backed No | 16c | 77.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 17cpaid | +128.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7e87backed Yes | 75c | 68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x708a…1f12backed No | 29c | 52.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1919…153cbacked No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 78c | 47.53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…8e0fbacked Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3083…f85cbacked Yes | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 76c | 17.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.