Earnings · resolved market
Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4791b5f8da5935820a4866148e91282c23be1e32e8d7ee30301f209b0f21ee90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2690…6b67backed No | 59c | 6,341$3,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,607.65 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,276$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3c…8b7cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,994$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 55c | 1,469$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.01 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…7690backed Yes | 66c | 1,189$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.34 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…53e6backed Yes | 59c | 847.12$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…70a6backed No | 10c | 480$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +170%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10a0…9e0ebacked Yes | 60c | 447.28$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed Yes | 56c | 399.99$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.99 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36a8…8718backed Yes | 6c | 321.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 41c | 275.56$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.18 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1d…9f6bbacked Yes | 16c | 275.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 57c | 254.66$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.81 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 11c | 220.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.93 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked Yes | 77c | 219.52$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.03 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…dc80backed No | 23c | 215$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d7…5672backed Yes | 59c | 193.73$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 19c | 189.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.98 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…c904backed Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7e87backed Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 64c | 125$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 57c | 117$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeec…a303backed No | 14c | 109.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.34 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4430…215ebacked No | 14c | 104.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.62 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed Yes | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…dcd6backed Yes | 64c | 99.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4670…5f1cbacked Yes | 51c | 98.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 17c | 91.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.95 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3799…cd36backed No | 13c | 90$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 17cpaid | +128.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1919…153cbacked No | 23c | 88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb65…3115backed No | 19c | 85.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.79 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 81.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 16c | 65.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.7 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb782…bb54backed No | 34c | 60.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…74dcbacked Yes | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed No | 53c | 57.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked No | 44c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed Yes | 59c | 51.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…f483backed No | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed Yes | 26c | 45.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…6dd5backed Yes | 58c | 43.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 72cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9be…3807backed Yes | 58c | 41.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ff…afbebacked Yes | 69c | 40.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.23per pick | 41cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc7…6498backed Yes | 55c | 36.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa345…4f54backed Yes | 42c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…aad8backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x147a…ca83backed Yes | 38c | 26.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed Yes | 53c | 25.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2164…ca6cbacked Yes | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bf…d1f4backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab1e…db2abacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94a8…4509backed No | 79c | 17.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3083…f85cbacked Yes | 75c | 15.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…ae32backed Yes | 74c | 14.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 107 | 21.5%23 W · 84 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.