Earnings · resolved market
Will Mastercard (MA) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeff9b11ac0059339d8ca504ee47d9a3c15471d5c4ff4a97d92e57e219aff0525
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,427
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,427 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21d2…177fbacked No | 9c | 1,323$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.5 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7e87backed No | 3c | 999.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 9c | 969.97$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.55 | 348 | 36.8%128 W · 220 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 5c | 717.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 306 | 15%46 W · 260 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4afd…1241backed No | 5c | 599.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73be…9a59backed No | 13c | 585.75$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc832…ed2bbacked No | 5c | 577.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 5c | 555.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 14c | 499.97$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 8c | 446.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a6b…0ad4backed No | 9c | 438.51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 7c | 389.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb65…3115backed No | 8c | 383.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 7c | 367.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 15c | 345.48$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.73 | 332 | 25%83 W · 249 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 8c | 282.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x575f…7febbacked No | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ac…bd9fbacked No | 9c | 225.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4266…0e08backed No | 9c | 220.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 9c | 198.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 9c | 189.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 8c | 185.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30d…d71fbacked No | 12c | 148.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8982…59fbbacked No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe9…17acbacked No | 10c | 101.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…9fcfbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc43…0305backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 12c | 91.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.