TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Earnings · resolved market

Will American Airlines (AAL) beat quarterly earnings?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,675
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,880

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,675 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Earnings
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1693…974ebacked No59c1,684$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.312080%16 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes34c1,593$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.4376137.6%286 W · 475 L+35.5wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe40…30f2backed No31c1,438$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987.972626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe381…3ba9backed Yes8c1,259$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.625125.5%64 W · 187 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd73b…bf60backed No35c1,019$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.87837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+109.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd555…e28abacked No23c999.63$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.8821639.4%85 W · 131 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+31.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4ba…68fabacked Yes62c639.54$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.7713432.8%44 W · 90 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes51c505.66$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.1915564.5%100 W · 55 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e3e…713abacked No30c497.74$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.161172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick50cpaid+109.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No12c491.56$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.646314.3%66 W · 397 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed Yes12c456.94$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.832128.6%6 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.16per pick13cpaid+65.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1ca9…cfafbacked Yes60c415$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.6230%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbd80…1266backed No50c398.32$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes39c392.07$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.411816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8ef…7690backed No27c382.72$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.448129.6%24 W · 57 L-5.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-38.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe9be…3807backed Yes48c349.41$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.2920%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc09…9024backed Yes49c308.89$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.944866.7%32 W · 16 L+5.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+28%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c10…336cbacked No35c300$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No21c299.86$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.8933025.2%83 W · 247 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8a7…46c4backed Yes78c298.62$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.66425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-67.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x53b4…0139backed Yes75c285.56$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.41475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…e220backed Yes79c255.96$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.09560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+273.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2269…6233backed Yes62c234.12$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.3430%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No30c213.85$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.731229.8%93 W · 219 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13e9…7cd4backed No20c200.42$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.422030%6 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick19cpaid+69.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0da5…ee92backed Yes69c200$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13840%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes66c199.99$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.9917137.4%64 W · 107 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+31.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes79c199.98$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.9867442.7%288 W · 386 L-36.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-21.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a1a…1ae1backed Yes77c188.34$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa802…23dfbacked No21c168.3$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.2710821.3%23 W · 85 L-0.1wins0.00per pick21cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1733…dc80backed No35c164.85$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.861136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick23cpaid+29.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes66c164.05$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.7957939%226 W · 353 L-25.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5f1…790bbacked Yes44c162.69$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.694139%16 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x375e…e862backed No45c153.3$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.712352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+23.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa345…4f54backed Yes37c151$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2630%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c9a…553bbacked No26c150.57$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.0413960.4%84 W · 55 L+14.8wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+34.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x45df…ad59backed Yes74c135.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001250%6 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-30.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x084f…8b8ebacked No41c130.07$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.71862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick57cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a0e…63b8backed Yes77c129.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3997…dd0fbacked No16c124.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.242045%9 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64d7…4d00backed Yes69c115.94$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8021357.3%122 W · 91 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6335…ca2bbacked No53c114.26$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.063100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+80.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No30c103.4$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.416927.5%19 W · 50 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-36.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4156…dcd6backed Yes63c100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632263.6%14 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick71cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c6c…1f67backed No53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc60f…74dabacked No18c100$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+249.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d7a…7839backed No30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+234.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f0f…4f31backed Yes80c100$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8035635.1%125 W · 231 L+17.1wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+20.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3d21…df94backed No33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673119.4%6 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-32.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7fe7…dbd6backed No14c94.76$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.0330315.2%46 W · 257 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No23c91.33$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.0820742%87 W · 120 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes72c89.96$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.7721861%133 W · 85 L+11.0wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+15.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x71be…61a0backed Yes70c85.71$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x943b…fe84backed Yes77c82.64$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.35955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick71cpaid-21.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6396…7e87backed Yes65c80$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ad9…6044backed Yes79c80$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x596d…dde6backed Yes66c76.82$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb65…3115backed No22c74.97$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.52119%4 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+99.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27e9…80c8backed No37c73.38$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.38757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1375…a764backed Yes77c71.42$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3de2…de5fbacked Yes77c70$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc965…5aeabacked No24c69.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.19560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick31cpaid+65.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb905…1640backed Yes80c68.3$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6430%0 W · 3 L-2.1wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6e87…5b81backed No32c67.97$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.17633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+31.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked No16c63.8$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.573844.7%17 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4575…9628backed No20c61.68$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.41931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked Yes67c60.16$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.371926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-35.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xefa6…d493backed Yes79c60$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-34.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes67c59.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.191573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+44%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xece2…f453backed Yes75c58.63$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick76cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes70c58.29$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.592138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x211f…8e0fbacked Yes70c57.14$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407358.9%43 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cec…0e12backed Yes70c56.24$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No28c52.14$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.3420729.5%61 W · 146 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00b9…1132backed Yes80c50.13$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes74c50.1$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0718941.3%78 W · 111 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes68c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.215530.3%47 W · 108 L-20.2wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-43.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x20a3…24d2backed No33c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa6…0a65backed Yes46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233321.2%7 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-37.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaf3…3324backed Yes79c48.94$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.61333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick77cpaid-56.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4670…5f1cbacked No34c48.71$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.334459.1%26 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9551…8c45backed No61c47.53$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.463100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+59.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9728…0314backed No29c47.5$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.77366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick21cpaid+199.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x370b…5f2cbacked No33c45.45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.45757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick36cpaid+51.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8267…6dd5backed Yes78c42.37$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.05955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick72cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd89d…d615backed Yes72c42.16$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.38250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dd5…9858backed Yes61c41.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid+18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes51c41.09$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9511032.7%36 W · 74 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0018…af64backed No25c40$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+101.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b97…36b7backed Yes70c35.26$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.758772.4%63 W · 24 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes36c33.02$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.842147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89c9…7014backed Yes77c28.7$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b1…6a6dbacked Yes67c27$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.09250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5780…dd00backed Yes77c26.01$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202462.5%15 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick71cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf709…c75cbacked Yes79c25.27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick77cpaid-56.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xab1e…db2abacked Yes74c23.73$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5520%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e41…ca06backed Yes72c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-28.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2c4…909dbacked Yes73c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x799c…405fbacked Yes78c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d76…b50ebacked Yes59c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.