TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on March 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$175,436

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $175,436 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbbc4…c01ebacked Yes55c30,000$16,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,497.331216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-68.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x17be…0dc8backed No45c30,000$13,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,5002119%4 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e4b…0d01backed No0c28,822$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.42520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-62.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9453…bc37backed No42c23,400$9,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,8281323.1%3 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-51.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34ec…b7cfbacked Yes58c23,400$13,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,828933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb005…374fbacked No1c13,850$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.45425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x285b…f3d3backed No0c3,110$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4670%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x100a…c6cebacked No1c3,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212554.3%11 W · 244 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+221.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0832…8681backed No0c2,770$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8134651.2%177 W · 169 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72ee…5ec7backed No1c1,658$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2280%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60b7…0623backed No27c1,475$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1887…d9ccbacked Yes73c1,475$1,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No2c1,165$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0869520%139 W · 556 L-44.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No1c1,069$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No10c1,005$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.781,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0848…503abacked No4c876.51$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.472213.6%3 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-46.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No9c644.74$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9959742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes68c425.99$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.556,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes30c390.4$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.541,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No10c370.64$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6234219.9%68 W · 274 L+18.6wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4886…b799backed No4c323.37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.44147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes64c318.23$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.364,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x298e…107ebacked No33c299.37$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5326169.3%181 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes65c281$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.271,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No55c273.24$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.2991967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bfe…b127backed Yes38c219.5$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.097614.5%11 W · 65 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c5a…022dbacked No6c209.01$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.192326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No11c200$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2186050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes29c192.48$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.0917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x59b4…78c9backed No11c139.88$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.786755.2%37 W · 30 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf261…bc9dbacked No71c128.61$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.325523.6%13 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No33c122.14$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.61,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x38ff…1acdbacked No9c118.95$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.964748.9%23 W · 24 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick59cpaid-23.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9e7f…44d4backed No72c117.61$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.6824966.7%166 W · 83 L+15.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No68c109.74$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.433,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7149…e7efbacked Yes63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2935362.9%222 W · 131 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4ef…8b9cbacked Yes55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453135.5%11 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No68c91.46$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.891,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No73c90.62$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.112,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No25c87.61$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.881,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes62c84.34$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.8711436%41 W · 73 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes64c82.14$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.371,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No18c81.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.511,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c28…0d2abacked No43c79.05$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.992334.8%8 W · 15 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x14c2…7105backed Yes33c78.21$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.523828.9%11 W · 27 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-29%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf5e3…5062backed No70c71.94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.361947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+35.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes31c70.69$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.5449038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9006…9fb8backed Yes37c67.4$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5827037.4%101 W · 169 L+12.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked No18c67.02$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3918316.4%30 W · 153 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-14.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ca6…6e7cbacked No71c66.2$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No47c64.8$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.343,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf01…79b6backed No66c63.7$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.768665.1%56 W · 30 L+6.7wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x324f…15b1backed No37c59$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.034022.5%9 W · 31 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0b9…3377backed No38c52.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014071.4%100 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick69cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98c3…6ca1backed Yes41c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.753333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d73…43f6backed Yes41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.511619.8%23 W · 93 L-7.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No29c45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0957232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes28c44.74$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2181029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9631…a38cbacked Yes52c42$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1649750.3%250 W · 247 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60a0…6539backed Yes62c40.01$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.081241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8744…3d64backed No59c40$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.61952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+29.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes56c33.54$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6135843.9%157 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6c8…d7c5backed No63c31.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2024149.8%120 W · 121 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No34c30.61$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x6a82…b6bdbacked No33c29.95$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12bd…ee48backed No68c29.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a49…8d1fbacked No62c28.82$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188248.8%40 W · 42 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Yes67c26.33$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.81,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes65c26.02$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1150648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6c2…c069backed No76c23.68$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181241.7%5 W · 7 L-3.5wins-0.30per pick71cpaid-42.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb13c…4af2backed Yes58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.41323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick17cpaid-63.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa978…67bfbacked No70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes80c18.89$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.8331567%211 W · 104 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeddc…f64ebacked Yes78c18.51$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.071338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-44.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b4e…e44abacked Yes62c18.12$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.961154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No64c18.1$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.517,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe26a…bb60backed Yes68c17.52$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.58333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-51.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No69c15.23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.512,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.