TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$44,645
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,917

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,645 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 248 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes58c1,378$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.727146.5%33 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No35c848.65$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.7628737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes62c567.42$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.151,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes52c537.72$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.681,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes71c444.65$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.156,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes50c424.45$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.247,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No6c417.47$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0546824.4%114 W · 354 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x295b…0f1dbacked Yes49c406.64$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.642729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9502…ba22backed Yes44c385.61$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.5911146.8%52 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No30c375.15$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.35,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes37c370.98$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.6117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c0b…55e1backed Yes65c339.75$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.462955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No34c318.16$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.3986050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b3f…6525backed Yes48c312.99$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.131540%6 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No52c304.63$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.7458349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb082…30e0backed Yes66c301.82$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.822254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes71c285.74$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.071,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes45c281.88$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.4620534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd4fa…4a86backed No5c279.34$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.041643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes57c262.98$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.3433139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37a9…3ac2backed Yes39c253.95$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.951464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+56.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6866…6725backed No29c249.22$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7250%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes40c213.16$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.491,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No53c203.82$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.623,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x888f…23f5backed Yes53c200.05$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.5517338.2%66 W · 107 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8db3…7bddbacked No29c200$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27dd…b696backed Yes52c199.65$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.633644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes50c198.58$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.0811646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a15…52d6backed Yes40c194.29$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.574924.5%12 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad2e…95f1backed Yes55c182.07$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.07771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.29per pick42cpaid+76.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xce0c…f7edbacked Yes50c181.28$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.972462.5%15 W · 9 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+25.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x30b2…b012backed No46c178.99$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.58250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2be…4a4cbacked Yes55c178.06$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.42445.8%11 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9a7…8a4dbacked Yes56c176.08$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.081729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7894…8503backed No46c167.99$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5208…ec3abacked No49c167.39$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.873636.1%13 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c166.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.992,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6b2…8e12backed No60c164.46$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.4447442.4%201 W · 273 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No50c160.54$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.011,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb23b…503fbacked No43c158.33$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.082227.3%6 W · 16 L-4.1wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-51%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8adf…48cdbacked Yes68c154.13$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.282931%9 W · 20 L-6.2wins-0.22per pick53cpaid-57.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No61c153.76$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.778,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No10c149.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1552245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…63adbacked No67c148.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc472…b96cbacked No18c147.33$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.525928.8%17 W · 42 L-12.2wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-54.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes37c145.7$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.531,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No59c144.59$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.631,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No35c141.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x2f08…e897backed No49c141$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35c8…8d55backed No48c141$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No44c140.21$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.173,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes69c140.09$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.7917643.2%76 W · 100 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No46c133.01$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.664,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85b5…1948backed No48c131.96$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.158551.8%44 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce69…c39dbacked No46c129$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb31d…b920backed Yes47c126.62$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6218035%63 W · 117 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c69…4622backed No60c124.33$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.6556265.5%368 W · 194 L+35.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No40c120.09$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.127,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x0943…1019backed Yes49c120.08$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.211070%7 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+20.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x27cd…c7adbacked Yes70c112.19$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.054235.7%15 W · 27 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-33.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes40c110.36$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.321,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes35c109.89$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.253,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No46c106.83$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.031,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc921…d6f3backed No47c104.17$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7715339.9%61 W · 92 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfedf…ee2abacked Yes50c100.64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.645633.9%19 W · 37 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64a4…c103backed Yes54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4611038.2%42 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbc4…c01ebacked No49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.51216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-68.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x49d7…1635backed Yes65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.365453.7%29 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b72…751ebacked Yes51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491435.7%5 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick19cpaid+187.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb5c1…c3a7backed No38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbed1…adf1backed Yes53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae07…8059backed Yes36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6443525.3%110 W · 325 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No55c99.97$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.996950.7%35 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x263c…6114backed Yes50c99.89$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.8915133.8%51 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes65c99.5$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.511233.9%38 W · 74 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x37b3…062cbacked Yes52c96.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.29425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-52.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No62c94.14$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0431868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd637…7617backed Yes68c91.47$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8613533.3%45 W · 90 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes63c91.36$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.81,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6036…916fbacked No34c89.13$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb1f…5154backed Yes74c88.29$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.024445.5%20 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No40c86$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.111,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc6f…f0f0backed No17c85.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.99419.8%4 W · 37 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-38.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c82…f315backed Yes51c84.39$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.3513930.2%42 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ce1…c33abacked No55c81.49$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8214961.1%91 W · 58 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes23c80.41$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.6864333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes42c80$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.710732.7%35 W · 72 L-8.9wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9723…5bdebacked Yes44c79.19$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.193435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-21.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8110…c1babacked Yes49c78.33$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.148250%41 W · 41 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c04…3d8bbacked No13c76.6$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.299161.5%56 W · 35 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x399f…e8d8backed No64c76.48$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7910154.5%55 W · 46 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd561…d81dbacked Yes56c76.36$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.563050%15 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe768…10efbacked Yes53c75$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3511355.8%63 W · 50 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee38…fd31backed No52c74.61$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.73557.1%20 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81ab…5f31backed No54c74.08$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4028946.4%134 W · 155 L-14.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa382…b076backed Yes54c72$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes36c71.63$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.071,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes38c70$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.411835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88e2…d474backed No26c67.61$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8116639.2%65 W · 101 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3837…c507backed Yes44c66.44$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.110444.2%46 W · 58 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.