Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5c910d97728305bb14f17fde8a8b785c5d1146cef9e63e40073d0284bee9b8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,851
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 15c | 2,449$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.87 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 847.13$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 21c | 580$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.3 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 553.84$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.25 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 14c | 532.25$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.54 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 27c | 499.51$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.21 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 444.63$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.12 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e9…fba8backed Yes | 20c | 442.79$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.56 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 11c | 369.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 367.03$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked Yes | 16c | 359.37$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 22c | 351.62$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.1 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 24c | 324.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.45 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9855…8190backed Yes | 10c | 303.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 288.26$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3f…6525backed Yes | 23c | 270$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.18 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 20c | 248.24$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 19c | 240.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6f…f0f0backed Yes | 11c | 228.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 24c | 200.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 18c | 192$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 26c | 190.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 14c | 173.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 20c | 150.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 21c | 149.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 149.45$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 28c | 148.36$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 16c | 147.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…4c83backed Yes | 8c | 140$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f4…bc90backed Yes | 15c | 136.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 18c | 131$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 18c | 125.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 25c | 123.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b9…1074backed Yes | 19c | 120$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 22c | 119.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9536…68f9backed Yes | 15c | 118.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 17c | 115.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x610b…e158backed Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…67b0backed No | 80c | 114.71$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 22c | 110$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9394…e78cbacked No | 80c | 110$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ee…8420backed Yes | 23c | 109$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 76c | 104.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…d9c1backed Yes | 20c | 100.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7d…2c4bbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x261f…2fa4backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…2cfebacked Yes | 22c | 99.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee38…fd31backed No | 78c | 99.69$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6be…21a8backed No | 79c | 99.67$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8544…27e9backed Yes | 23c | 98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…9c46backed Yes | 23c | 96.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 18c | 95.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b1…842ebacked Yes | 23c | 93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be6…5240backed Yes | 22c | 93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 19c | 87.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 15c | 86.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacc…b4e2backed Yes | 24c | 83.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -68%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005b…2947backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…19a7backed Yes | 19c | 79.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…9eb1backed Yes | 13c | 78.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0a…0a1abacked Yes | 18c | 77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a23…425cbacked Yes | 21c | 72.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 14c | 72.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 78c | 72.51$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd30…4dadbacked Yes | 18c | 69.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf412…3120backed Yes | 22c | 69.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b1…9bdabacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 18c | 66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 22c | 65.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa511…010bbacked Yes | 25c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d6…9b4dbacked Yes | 27c | 63.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f94…766fbacked No | 79c | 62.89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 21c | 62.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…764fbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a31…335fbacked No | 76c | 59.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb3…803abacked Yes | 18c | 57.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9912…8116backed Yes | 21c | 56.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe720…0f58backed No | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 24c | 54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 25c | 54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 22c | 52.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 21c | 52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe39e…23a5backed Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1757…ac33backed No | 77c | 48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd682…26dfbacked No | 80c | 41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…3fcebacked Yes | 25c | 39.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…916fbacked No | 76c | 39.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc951…51a8backed No | 77c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x165b…7544backed No | 78c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc02…504dbacked No | 78c | 38.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C or higher on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C or below on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.