TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,983
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,851

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,983 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes15c2,449$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.8747442.4%201 W · 273 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes1c1,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.528737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes21c847.13$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.9817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes21c580$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.335018%63 W · 287 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes20c553.84$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.257,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes14c532.25$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.541,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes27c499.51$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.2186420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes21c444.63$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.126,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x35e9…fba8backed Yes20c442.79$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.569714.4%14 W · 83 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-29.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes3c400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes11c369.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.515,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes23c367.03$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.68,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked Yes16c359.37$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572846.4%13 W · 15 L+5.1wins+0.18per pick28cpaid+104.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes22c351.62$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.11,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes24c324.99$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.4595933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9855…8190backed Yes10c303.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301747.1%8 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick35cpaid-1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No77c288.26$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.63,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b3f…6525backed Yes23c270$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.181540%6 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd637…7617backed Yes20c248.24$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7513533.3%45 W · 90 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes19c240.08$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7620534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc6f…f0f0backed Yes11c228.56$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.56419.8%4 W · 37 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-38.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x888f…23f5backed Yes24c200.31$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2517338.2%66 W · 107 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3636…1a57backed Yes18c192$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.748551.8%44 W · 41 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes26c190.24$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5049941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Yes27c185.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes14c173.32$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes20c150.04$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0186226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes21c149.69$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6915626.3%41 W · 115 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No80c149.45$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.44,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes28c148.36$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1248331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0057…b1c7backed Yes16c147.02$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.214826.4%39 W · 109 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8288…4c83backed Yes8c140$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.364535.6%16 W · 29 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+0.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe7f4…bc90backed Yes15c136.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202020%4 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-52.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes18c131$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.11,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes18c125.57$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.223,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes25c123.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3364333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66b9…1074backed Yes19c120$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c82…f315backed Yes22c119.58$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3113930.2%42 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9536…68f9backed Yes15c118.24$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.166121.3%13 W · 48 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+85.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes17c115.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011233.9%38 W · 74 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x610b…e158backed Yes13c115.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156018.3%11 W · 49 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4259…67b0backed No80c114.71$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.211154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes22c110$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.21,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9394…e78cbacked No80c110$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.31450%7 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ee…8420backed Yes23c109$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.07250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No76c104.99$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.71,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b28…d9c1backed Yes20c100.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206033.3%20 W · 40 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f7d…2c4bbacked No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x261f…2fa4backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+62.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xae07…8059backed Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6143525.3%110 W · 325 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x263c…6114backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015133.8%51 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef62…2cfebacked Yes22c99.98$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.995337.7%20 W · 33 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-22.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xee38…fd31backed No78c99.69$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.083557.1%20 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6be…21a8backed No79c99.67$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.84475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8544…27e9backed Yes23c98$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdef0…9c46backed Yes23c96.26$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.878038.8%31 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed Yes18c95.91$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.621,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7b1…842ebacked Yes23c93$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.53250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be6…5240backed Yes22c93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes19c87.85$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.691,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3319…977abacked Yes15c86.15$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9226426.9%71 W · 193 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaacc…b4e2backed Yes24c83.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-68%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x005b…2947backed Yes25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick26cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b60…19a7backed Yes19c79.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-68.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad0b…9eb1backed Yes13c78.26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.04520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-63.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c0a…0a1abacked Yes18c77$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.893534.3%12 W · 23 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-10.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a23…425cbacked Yes21c72.93$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.20per pick28cpaid-73.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes14c72.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5535232.7%115 W · 237 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d84…4ff1backed No78c72.51$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6129558%171 W · 124 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf674…8564backed Yes15c70$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.516234%55 W · 107 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd30…4dadbacked Yes18c69.84$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.84852.1%25 W · 23 L+5.4wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+18.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf412…3120backed Yes22c69.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151625%4 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3b1…9bdabacked Yes29c68.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes18c66$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.21,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes22c65.26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6485330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa511…010bbacked Yes25c65$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.32650%13 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-24.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2d6…9b4dbacked Yes27c63.89$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.572147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f94…766fbacked No79c62.89$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes21c62.46$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0733243.1%143 W · 189 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe013…764fbacked Yes25c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.816744.8%30 W · 37 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a31…335fbacked No76c59.99$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.16163.9%39 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8cb3…803abacked Yes18c57.77$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+56.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9912…8116backed Yes21c56.82$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-33.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe720…0f58backed No80c55$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes24c54$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.081,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes25c54$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.594919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes22c52.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.518534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes21c52$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8722028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf10e…4308backed No79c50.63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6323673.3%173 W · 63 L+28.6wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+27.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x399f…e8d8backed No80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1010154.5%55 W · 46 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a43…26babacked Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119346.2%43 W · 50 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe39e…23a5backed Yes24c49.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123917.9%7 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-24.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1757…ac33backed No77c48$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.042100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick74cpaid+36.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd682…26dfbacked No80c41$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94b1…3fcebacked Yes25c39.69$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-46.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6036…916fbacked No76c39.65$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.65955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc951…51a8backed No77c39$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x165b…7544backed No78c39$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.58250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc02…504dbacked No78c38.67$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.676365.1%41 W · 22 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.