TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$66,802
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$66,952

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,802 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xccd1…b3febacked Yes14c7,022$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddb8…e69abacked Yes13c5,781$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f23…5a4ebacked Yes13c5,747$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26b1…cc81backed Yes5c2,545$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.923429.1%68 W · 166 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bd9…bd75backed Yes11c1,766$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.651942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9715…6f82backed Yes9c1,159$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.345440.7%22 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+110.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes9c841.37$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.888,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes17c824.25$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.477,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9502…ba22backed Yes28c761.56$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.2911146.8%52 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4acc…9bdabacked Yes2c690$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5273.7%1 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid-59.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes6c596.46$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9235018%63 W · 287 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5209…b249backed Yes10c585.95$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.05933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-47.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes11c584.32$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9631341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1586420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No77c461.49$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.7186050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x295b…0f1dbacked Yes24c410.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes6c373.24$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8324216.9%41 W · 201 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes22c362.9$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.621,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d1c…f13cbacked No79c354.94$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.86955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x652f…eb3dbacked Yes17c349.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6011515.7%18 W · 97 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No80c346.82$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.381,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes13c345.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.141,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x58a4…7456backed Yes9c310.69$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9623022.6%52 W · 178 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4cad…e203backed Yes15c270$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.614035%14 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes7c268.2$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.676,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5374…d802backed Yes18c234.62$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.213125.8%8 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37a9…3ac2backed Yes29c207.12$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+56.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3b04…9f95backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-51%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes14c200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2820534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa20c…451abacked Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408016.3%13 W · 67 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-73.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ca7…7875backed Yes17c199.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3360%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5208…ec3abacked Yes23c192.35$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.463636.1%13 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes13c192.23$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1846824.4%114 W · 354 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x772b…ab83backed Yes7c188$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick10cpaid+66%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd729…cd53backed Yes19c184.52$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.93250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8165…97b8backed Yes25c160.24$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6818550.3%93 W · 92 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b3f…6525backed Yes25c160$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.411540%6 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed Yes9c150$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.552245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes17c150$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.51,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7f4…bc90backed Yes26c149.17$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392020%4 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-52.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85b5…1948backed Yes21c142.23$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.798551.8%44 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes16c136.05$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.317,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x080a…6030backed Yes18c135.81$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256114.8%9 W · 52 L-8.4wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-48.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes17c124.16$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes9c123$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0799949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ced…6c85backed Yes22c118.93$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.122520%5 W · 20 L-4.8wins-0.19per pick39cpaid+48.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x27dd…b696backed Yes17c117.16$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.433644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4611…3790backed Yes15c113.71$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.06319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-64.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1a0…4a06backed Yes23c113$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.795641.1%23 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-23.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes11c111.65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2816651.2%85 W · 81 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb02f…24aabacked Yes16c111.5$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.432615.4%4 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes12c110$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.21,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes23c109.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.51,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee38…fd31backed Yes15c108.56$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.23557.1%20 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes13c107$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9124442.6%104 W · 140 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes14c106.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.881,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca40…3536backed Yes24c105.58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+44.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55f8…801ebacked Yes14c103.9$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d91…f592backed Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19407.5%3 W · 37 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-74.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f7d…2c4bbacked Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05c8…092abacked Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1436123%83 W · 278 L+15.0wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+27.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae07…8059backed Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1943525.3%110 W · 325 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes20c99.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.619123.6%45 W · 146 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes31c98.15$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3053437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x96ad…8db9backed Yes21c97.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.394344.2%19 W · 24 L+4.4wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+48.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6372…4a25backed No78c96.16$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8641070.5%289 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x883f…0634backed Yes26c96$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.627536%27 W · 48 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes12c95.68$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3122028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9723…5bdebacked Yes26c94.97$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-21.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x643d…f7ddbacked Yes14c93.12$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.146825%17 W · 51 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No72c92.45$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.221,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No74c92.14$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.564,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…df13backed Yes15c90$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14dc…f468backed Yes27c88.8$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.981650%8 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff89…dbffbacked Yes18c85.93$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.354537.8%17 W · 28 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0b1…6754backed No77c83.32$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.235465%230 W · 124 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…137ebacked Yes22c83$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9613663.2%86 W · 50 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick64cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a49…54adbacked Yes31c82.61$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.52025%5 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-28.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No78c77.64$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.33,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x399f…e8d8backed Yes30c76.54$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8410154.5%55 W · 46 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No75c74.13$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2531868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e71…9a89backed Yes16c69.77$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.16633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-39.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec42…5ffbbacked No77c69.32$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0915176.8%116 W · 35 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick76cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1395…b329backed Yes31c63.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.062536%9 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick40cpaid+4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc63a…26a0backed No71c63.44$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.082532%8 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-41.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x81ab…5f31backed Yes16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1028946.4%134 W · 155 L-14.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No75c62.11$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.551,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe481…32a3backed Yes20c61.91$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.23043.3%13 W · 17 L+4.6wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+58.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6178…a9debacked Yes19c61.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8640%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7841…7273backed Yes24c60$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.213514.3%5 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-45.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes22c59.22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.036747.8%32 W · 35 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+31.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x11a4…bba6backed Yes23c56$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8812223%28 W · 94 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked Yes19c55.48$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2721272.6%154 W · 58 L+22.8wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+21.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xba38…72debacked Yes23c54.07$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55d5…7b83backed Yes28c53.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.124621.7%10 W · 36 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x477e…7d74backed Yes19c52.54$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.072317.4%4 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-47.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f45…506bbacked Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.06185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-45.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c69…4622backed No67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.556265.5%368 W · 194 L+35.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ce1…c33abacked Yes23c49.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3514961.1%91 W · 58 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.