Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 28-29°F on February 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc46cb39acb62b2316311ca906045cd70d873b0e4ebf72e6af893f401c2a6239
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,175
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,654
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,175 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb088…ee40backed No | 50c | 19,400$9,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,699.9 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42fd…96c0backed Yes | 50c | 19,400$9,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,699.4 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc4…c01ebacked Yes | 50c | 15,000$7,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,500.18 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…751ebacked No | 50c | 14,982$7,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,492.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 19cpaid | +187.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf83…8558backed Yes | 30c | 3,460$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,422 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd436…b252backed No | 70c | 1,195$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80e…fe8abacked No | 70c | 1,135$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d3…bc50backed No | 70c | 1,130$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 21c | 648.54$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.99 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 27c | 519.54$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.47 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9c6bbacked Yes | 68c | 319.33$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.66 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 258.63$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 35c | 236.92$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.82 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d7…9679backed No | 33c | 218.08$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 10c | 199.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d4…51cbbacked Yes | 35c | 173.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 15c | 168.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eeb…0049backed Yes | 64c | 157.55$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.94 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…ca6bbacked No | 45c | 144.4$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.41 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 65c | 129.7$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.31 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 115.01$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 114.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 63c | 107$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.77 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 18c | 88.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 69c | 85.26$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc226…497dbacked Yes | 64c | 78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 75c | 66.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b3…487cbacked No | 63c | 65.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 32c | 64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d18…63cabacked Yes | 50c | 60.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 26c | 60.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01b2…9cf8backed Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4122…6c07backed Yes | 64c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d7dfbacked Yes | 33c | 51.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4fb2backed No | 64c | 49.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 90 | 76.7%69 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 41c | 46.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Yes | 47c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x61a7…4743backed No | 63c | 42.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -5.8wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -45%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x531e…a7b3backed Yes | 42c | 35.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe201…3f41backed No | 63c | 35.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -30%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 72c | 34.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 59c | 33.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 59c | 33.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 49c | 32.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x916e…2be2backed Yes | 35c | 31.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 49c | 30.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450f…865cbacked No | 58c | 27.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 62c | 27.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…4a2dbacked Yes | 56c | 26.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef5e…82fabacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 43c | 26.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 70c | 24.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…76d4backed No | 62c | 24.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -6.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb834…e4c1backed No | 73c | 23.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 73cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 64c | 21.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…7d0dbacked Yes | 57c | 20.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d44…831bbacked Yes | 79c | 19.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe311…a16fbacked No | 67c | 19.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 28-29°F on February 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 25°F or below on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 26-27°F on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 30-31°F on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 32-33°F on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on February 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.