Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 30-31°F on February 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x331e0cc96cca3a3147e68bb35247b94372793cb6bf852eeae515bb5f998c07e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,070
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,070 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8202…07e8backed Yes | 19c | 3,555$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 10c | 210.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 11c | 162.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x916e…2be2backed Yes | 14c | 154.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 9c | 116.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x62d7…9679backed Yes | 41c | 116.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 66c | 112.78$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…648fbacked Yes | 35c | 112.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 108.03$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 16c | 98.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 14c | 89.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eeb…0049backed Yes | 52c | 88.54$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…4572backed Yes | 32c | 87.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 81.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9710…94c2backed Yes | 19c | 66.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd645…a7a3backed Yes | 26c | 65.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…6387backed Yes | 33c | 56.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b3…487cbacked No | 77c | 55.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 71c | 47.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e6…0f82backed Yes | 28c | 46.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 77c | 45.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1eca…aec6backed Yes | 50c | 39.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf649…5bb6backed Yes | 34c | 38.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7be4…c73cbacked Yes | 27c | 37.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3415…9d95backed Yes | 31c | 36.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e4…1377backed Yes | 36c | 33.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa685…c2b3backed No | 74c | 33.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d44…831bbacked Yes | 49c | 26.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d381backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 78c | 21.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 77c | 17.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…c287backed No | 72c | 16.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…496fbacked No | 80c | 14.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 71c | 14.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 30-31°F on February 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 25°F or below on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 26-27°F on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 28-29°F on February 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 32-33°F on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on February 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.