Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83e71f8ec2154dde1d6cb057c229a2969a06e737280f83b1bf4a24fe9b1445c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbc4…c01ebacked No | 0c | 38,259$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.52 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 0c | 10,206$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 63c | 1,441$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.45 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 7c | 535$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 7c | 468.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 30c | 319.95$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.77 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 19c | 297.96$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.35 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dae…7d0dbacked No | 4c | 258.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 230.84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.44 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed No | 49c | 222.69$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.42 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 203.53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.59 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 194.73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.45 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 39c | 176.1$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.06 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed No | 70c | 175.69$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.66 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 38c | 126$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.58 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 121.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…95bdbacked Yes | 21c | 110.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.47 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 107.51$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 49c | 101.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 20c | 101.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 19c | 101.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.02 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 23c | 86.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.22 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 28c | 72.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.43 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…bd14backed No | 51c | 71.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 79c | 55.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 56c | 52.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 51.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 40c | 49.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 79c | 49.73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 33c | 47.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed No | 75c | 45.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 45.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…674ebacked No | 55c | 43.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe654…cfc9backed Yes | 35c | 39.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 50c | 39.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 58c | 39.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…8f0bbacked Yes | 35c | 38.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…e507backed No | 79c | 38.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 77c | 33.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 31.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2427…52a2backed No | 39c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 77c | 29.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 70c | 29.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…ac0ebacked No | 79c | 26.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f24…94f9backed No | 67c | 21.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed No | 74c | 20.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 78c | 20.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 68c | 20.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a7…610cbacked Yes | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed No | 60c | 19.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed Yes | 80c | 17.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 80c | 17.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2388…5a3ebacked No | 79c | 14.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.32per pick | 40cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.