Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9f5f4638f5705d2ebeefaf43b1289244172584060c4e5188a92ce69f17d0590
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 21c | 1,586$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.43 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 73 | 5.5%4 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3d…1e5abacked Yes | 1c | 1,200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 3c | 958.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 1c | 752.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 12c | 312$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 259.11$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.34 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 71c | 235.07$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.73 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 35c | 218.69$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.26 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 37c | 197.75$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 190.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc239…6459backed No | 42c | 179.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.4 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 25c | 176.17$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88f0…d597backed Yes | 39c | 143.49$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9897…eb2abacked No | 49c | 142.4$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.21 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 50c | 126.08$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.67 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…109fbacked No | 66c | 99.34$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 69c | 98.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa479…ef6bbacked Yes | 20c | 97.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 46c | 97.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 58c | 96.16$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 51c | 95.14$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.24 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 87.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…8875backed No | 58c | 86.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…fb35backed No | 64c | 74.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.69 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 42c | 74.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eae…7ac0backed Yes | 58c | 73.32$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…6ea0backed Yes | 52c | 71.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbce…c781backed Yes | 51c | 71.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 18c | 71.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 47c | 71.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 37c | 70.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 55c | 69.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 59c | 69.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…480bbacked Yes | 38c | 68.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 54c | 66.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a23…184abacked Yes | 51c | 62.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 60.39$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes | 41c | 57.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 112 | 23.2%26 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed No | 62c | 53.12$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e35…24a7backed No | 62c | 44.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 57c | 43.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…bd14backed No | 61c | 42.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 45c | 41.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 44c | 40.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 40.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 34c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 41c | 38.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa58…895ebacked Yes | 51c | 37.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3141…f16abacked Yes | 50c | 36.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…c17abacked Yes | 48c | 34.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 41c | 33.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 38c | 32.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc2…b3a5backed Yes | 34c | 32.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…674ebacked Yes | 60c | 31.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5947backed No | 56c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4f…ac4bbacked No | 63c | 30.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2427…52a2backed No | 51c | 29.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e08…59d2backed Yes | 58c | 28.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 63c | 27.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 47c | 26.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 57c | 25.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 63c | 24.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…e315backed No | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2168…c154backed No | 63c | 22.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 66c | 22.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x843d…89bcbacked Yes | 60c | 19.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed No | 57c | 17.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae7…10d5backed No | 68c | 14.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 77c | 13.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.