Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16f1363d13ab9aed53f2c879a1022e2326ba20073d37a61a2fc98535dfe2b54a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 1c | 989.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc967…91d5backed Yes | 4c | 571.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 22c | 334.68$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.02 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 276.35$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.84 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 74c | 270.25$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.26 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 10c | 206.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…9144backed Yes | 12c | 169.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…2080backed Yes | 18c | 137.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 30c | 137.13$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…6ea0backed No | 71c | 136.29$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.17 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88f0…d597backed Yes | 33c | 121.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 19c | 103.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 79c | 101.11$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 98.34$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…c6ccbacked Yes | 36c | 97.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed No | 70c | 86.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be5…41afbacked Yes | 20c | 85.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 22c | 85.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9897…eb2abacked Yes | 27c | 79.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 75.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 27c | 74.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 24c | 73.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…b3ccbacked Yes | 36c | 70.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…c17abacked Yes | 18c | 66.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 76c | 64.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 60.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e08…59d2backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 21c | 59.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bda…7258backed Yes | 25c | 58.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 52.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked No | 76c | 50.26$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 24c | 49.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed Yes | 39c | 48.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 45.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 73c | 40.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 28c | 39.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 78c | 34.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd52…be22backed No | 64c | 32.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd2…5671backed No | 64c | 32.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 80c | 30.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 29.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7623…da04backed No | 72c | 29.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 67c | 28.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 80c | 28.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65e3…0ed9backed Yes | 37c | 27.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 67c | 26.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 69c | 22.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd611…53c8backed No | 79c | 21.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 72 | 77.8%56 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 65c | 20.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 79c | 20.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 77c | 19.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 75c | 19.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2736…fdb9backed No | 80c | 18.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 79c | 17.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 67c | 17.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 15.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.