TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$54,708

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,708 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 202 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x239d…d6ffbacked Yes1c4,233$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.07944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdfe…d609backed Yes1c1,621$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-43.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x493d…c935backed Yes1c1,103$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf92b…84afbacked Yes1c1,055$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.25425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-46.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9715…6f82backed Yes32c776.92$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.885440.7%22 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+110.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes26c700.27$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.7317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes8c700$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe57…4406backed Yes33c662.14$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.635527.3%15 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes9c650$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.596313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No73c635.97$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.5358349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes32c564.59$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.4677428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No68c561.09$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.691967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed Yes15c524.97$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2928718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes5c483.63$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5254143.1%233 W · 308 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes18c415.4$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.4333620.2%68 W · 268 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x774c…d9d0backed Yes23c384.25$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes20c375.02$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.716036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No69c350.78$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.1586050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes16c322$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1824216.9%41 W · 201 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No63c317.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.432,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes21c312.53$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.941,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6045…b2e7backed Yes38c307.76$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.251435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-32.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No59c300.02$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.7631649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x88b4…05babacked Yes36c279.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.961833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes28c250.07$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3786226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6897…a0a4backed Yes55c243.65$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.251346.2%6 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes35c241.97$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.131,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes21c233.5$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.271,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes12c224.48$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.097,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes32c215.62$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.2556434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe073…abb2backed No46c210.81$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.374427.3%12 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-43.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No63c205.16$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.5354037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe34…8ee7backed No69c203$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.7516355.2%90 W · 73 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes16c196.23$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.26,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked Yes38c192.29$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732846.4%13 W · 15 L+5.1wins+0.18per pick28cpaid+104.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes32c189.98$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7910650%53 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaf60…79c5backed Yes48c184.07$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.356445.3%29 W · 35 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes32c178$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.471,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No58c177.43$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.0453525.2%135 W · 400 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No67c168.05$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.493,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0370…48d3backed No66c165.57$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.577552%39 W · 36 L+8.3wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+14.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x61bb…8939backed Yes61c162.94$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa88e…4383backed Yes42c160$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.2450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eec…e587backed Yes13c159.84$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.518835.2%31 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No67c151.09$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.558,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes30c150$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4514338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes17c150$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.51,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d5f…867dbacked No57c137.63$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.7211449.1%56 W · 58 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No66c137.14$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.081,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b38…6e4ebacked Yes36c137$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a5…5737backed Yes36c136.9$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.743920.5%8 W · 31 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-36.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes37c120.21$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4511233.9%38 W · 74 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1722…165abacked Yes54c120$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.3450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes14c120$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.852935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes42c117.9$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes26c109.13$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7211337.2%42 W · 71 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes16c108.93$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9424932.9%82 W · 167 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-32.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cde…476ebacked Yes35c105$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4516336.2%59 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No66c104.4$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.992,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes52c104.06$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.031,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac45…844fbacked Yes29c103.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303423.5%8 W · 26 L-4.1wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-54.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x888f…23f5backed Yes43c101.15$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2517338.2%66 W · 107 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcdc…57b3backed No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2010577.1%81 W · 24 L+11.1wins+0.11per pick67cpaid+19.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee89…cfb3backed Yes44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cb6…c66bbacked Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196939.1%27 W · 42 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa26f…1071backed Yes45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3837644.9%169 W · 207 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe44…af27backed Yes37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3717433.9%59 W · 115 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2395933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes33c99.98$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9936930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d79…3375backed No73c99.97$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a38…ada9backed Yes11c98.66$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5123633.1%78 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4f0…0bd2backed No57c95.81$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.29250%46 W · 46 L-9.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-20.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes31c95.28$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.177,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes25c94.26$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.41,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes13c92.87$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1825839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc498…8ba5backed Yes32c91.72$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2942438.9%165 W · 259 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes30c90$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes32c90$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.863538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebee…7f68backed Yes32c89.26$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.749529.5%28 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes33c87.88$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2911128.8%32 W · 79 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-11.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes36c86$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7522028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ced…7ce8backed No50c85.94$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5613748.2%66 W · 71 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5864…e473backed Yes35c82.45$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.161145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No70c80$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3831868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa306…9802backed Yes36c79.67$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.572944.8%13 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb507…7f2abacked Yes32c79.63$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.22544%11 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes48c79.48$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes35c79.43$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2832352.9%171 W · 152 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x263c…6114backed Yes38c78.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3015133.8%51 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes46c78.09$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6957659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b42…c94dbacked Yes23c76.87$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick28cpaid-65.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc52c…282fbacked Yes31c76.19$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0b1…6754backed Yes33c75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2535465%230 W · 124 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5db5…d9d8backed Yes32c71.73$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.28812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.23per pick36cpaid-59%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9a55…359cbacked No51c70.83$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.472222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-40.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee5e…7f1cbacked Yes24c69.14$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.761315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-60.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb732…108dbacked Yes44c67.88$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+26.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc73d…565abacked No74c67.85$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.855139.2%20 W · 31 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes31c65.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2086847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.