Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95a8155fe5467a1222def679d66b8580f1fc9598ece4d3e2935f69738ff81e66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,708 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 202 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x239d…d6ffbacked Yes | 1c | 4,233$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfe…d609backed Yes | 1c | 1,621$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x493d…c935backed Yes | 1c | 1,103$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf92b…84afbacked Yes | 1c | 1,055$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9715…6f82backed Yes | 32c | 776.92$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.88 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 700.27$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 8c | 700$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe57…4406backed Yes | 33c | 662.14$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.63 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 9c | 650$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 73c | 635.97$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.53 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 32c | 564.59$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.46 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 68c | 561.09$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.6 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 15c | 524.97$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.29 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 5c | 483.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 18c | 415.4$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.43 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x774c…d9d0backed Yes | 23c | 384.25$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 20c | 375.02$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.7 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 69c | 350.78$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.15 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 16c | 322$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.18 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 63c | 317.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.43 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 21c | 312.53$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.94 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6045…b2e7backed Yes | 38c | 307.76$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 59c | 300.02$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.76 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b4…05babacked Yes | 36c | 279.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 28c | 250.07$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.37 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a0a4backed Yes | 55c | 243.65$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 35c | 241.97$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.13 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 21c | 233.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 224.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 32c | 215.62$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.25 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe073…abb2backed No | 46c | 210.81$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.37 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 63c | 205.16$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.53 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 69c | 203$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.75 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 196.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked Yes | 38c | 192.29$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 32c | 189.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.79 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 48c | 184.07$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.35 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 32c | 178$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.47 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 58c | 177.43$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.04 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 168.05$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.49 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed No | 66c | 165.57$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.57 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…8939backed Yes | 61c | 162.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa88e…4383backed Yes | 42c | 160$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 13c | 159.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 151.09$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.55 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 57c | 137.63$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.72 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 66c | 137.14$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b38…6e4ebacked Yes | 36c | 137$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a5…5737backed Yes | 36c | 136.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 37c | 120.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1722…165abacked Yes | 54c | 120$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 42c | 117.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 26c | 109.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 16c | 108.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 35c | 105$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 66c | 104.4$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 52c | 104.06$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.03 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…844fbacked Yes | 29c | 103.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 43c | 101.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee89…cfb3backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.38 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 33c | 99.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d79…3375backed No | 73c | 99.97$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 11c | 98.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 57c | 95.81$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 95.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 25c | 94.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 13c | 92.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 32c | 91.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 32c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…7f68backed Yes | 32c | 89.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 33c | 87.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 36c | 86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 50c | 85.94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5864…e473backed Yes | 35c | 82.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…9802backed Yes | 36c | 79.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb507…7f2abacked Yes | 32c | 79.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 48c | 79.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 35c | 79.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 38c | 78.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 46c | 78.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b42…c94dbacked Yes | 23c | 76.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc52c…282fbacked Yes | 31c | 76.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 33c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5db5…d9d8backed Yes | 32c | 71.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -59%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…359cbacked No | 51c | 70.83$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee5e…7f1cbacked Yes | 24c | 69.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…108dbacked Yes | 44c | 67.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc73d…565abacked No | 74c | 67.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 31c | 65.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or below on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on March 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or higher on March 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.