Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6501ac3adfa9a11635301bb4a2b5a09f5578bc4d537529acfb2553232dd956da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,098 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x560b…85d7backed Yes | 1c | 2,954$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 3c | 2,345$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.29 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,934$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.01 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 3c | 1,769$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 10c | 1,514$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.8 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 2c | 1,405$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 4c | 1,111$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 822.07$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes | 7c | 714.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 86 | 9.3%8 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 5c | 699.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 15c | 594.45$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.29 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 2c | 485.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9715…6f82backed Yes | 8c | 474.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 10c | 307.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 10c | 288.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5421…3b38backed Yes | 18c | 277.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 10c | 266.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 13c | 230.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 15c | 205.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 199.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 13c | 178$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…ca17backed Yes | 17c | 176.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe57…4406backed Yes | 14c | 175$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 7c | 173.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x864f…9b86backed Yes | 12c | 172.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 13c | 158.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94a7…16eebacked Yes | 16c | 156$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 11c | 152.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 13c | 149.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 19c | 139.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 9c | 134.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 14c | 130$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…9109backed No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 121.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 18c | 113.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb9…9481backed Yes | 14c | 110.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed Yes | 21c | 107.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b06…8eb2backed Yes | 13c | 103$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x107e…619cbacked Yes | 13c | 101.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…662dbacked Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -70%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 22c | 99.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…513cbacked Yes | 16c | 95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 29c | 93.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd734…04dabacked Yes | 13c | 93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 17c | 89.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 19c | 82.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf412…3120backed Yes | 14c | 81.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…9802backed Yes | 19c | 80.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 15c | 76.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 18c | 67.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Yes | 16c | 66.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 24c | 65.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…0a6cbacked Yes | 23c | 64.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 21c | 61.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 20c | 56.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 79c | 56.15$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 22c | 47.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 80c | 44.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3be1…79f3backed Yes | 23c | 43.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6e…e995backed No | 80c | 33.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 80c | 31.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa953…dd72backed No | 78c | 29.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a61…9112backed No | 77c | 22.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x901d…55b4backed No | 79c | 18.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or below on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on March 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or higher on March 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.