Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on March 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d9a0bf25ce022c72ea60168987a7d115534bf827d0bd793f3d7ea1097fabebc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,494
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,494 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 187 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf876…8975backed No | 0c | 15,005$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb263…c49abacked Yes | 23c | 3,884$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,990.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…5ff9backed Yes | 23c | 3,851$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,965.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd73f…03ddbacked Yes | 33c | 3,065$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,053.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +114%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9abd…0fd5backed Yes | 32c | 2,990$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,033.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +125.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x348d…e355backed Yes | 35c | 2,644$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,718.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6f…17edbacked Yes | 35c | 2,627$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,707.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f08…9fdcbacked No | 67c | 1,535$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf601…0989backed No | 67c | 1,530$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b6…9525backed No | 68c | 1,500$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd44…22aebacked No | 68c | 1,490$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 17c | 1,335$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.26 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5a…d91abacked No | 65c | 1,328$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8671…7127backed No | 65c | 1,321$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c44…3d39backed No | 65c | 1,316$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…0791backed No | 65c | 1,306$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fe…0e2fbacked No | 77c | 1,302$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac7…0777backed No | 77c | 1,294$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13af…89ffbacked No | 77c | 1,294$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93d4…d407backed No | 77c | 1,288$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51c9…817dbacked No | 77c | 1,285$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc9…8380backed No | 77c | 1,272$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed No | 8c | 1,042$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.62 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce45…aa7bbacked No | 2c | 641.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 70c | 534.26$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.94 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 51c | 511.43$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.54 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 12c | 503.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 25c | 502.43$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.43 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30c8…8431backed No | 10c | 459.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 458.51$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.28 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 32c | 448.74$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.13 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…742dbacked Yes | 43c | 369.51$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.84 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 56c | 358.35$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.34 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 71c | 347.56$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.56 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 26c | 303.11$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.83 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x542f…916abacked Yes | 66c | 289.01$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.7 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8de4…427cbacked No | 76c | 288.16$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 28c | 263.61$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.26 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4457…f3e2backed No | 47c | 249.95$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.98 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 25c | 247.32$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.69 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 65c | 240$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 44c | 240$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.8 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 67c | 216.83$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.18 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 214.43$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.55 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 37c | 208.88$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.01 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 54c | 199.53$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.79 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 25c | 195.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 57c | 186.27$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.66 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…9109backed No | 79c | 186.2$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.29 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…9a02backed Yes | 54c | 185.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.18 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 23c | 179.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 36c | 178$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.49 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 53c | 174.57$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.09 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e76…95cdbacked Yes | 32c | 172.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.52 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 77c | 159.36$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 153.66$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.11 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 70c | 152.76$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.86 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…108dbacked Yes | 64c | 151.16$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…f4c8backed Yes | 39c | 150$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 64c | 146.4$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.01 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…359cbacked No | 26c | 136.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 131.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.05 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 27c | 129.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.49 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 29c | 128.02$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.22 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0b…30aebacked Yes | 40c | 126.77$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.92 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 32c | 121.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 69c | 120.61$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6045…b2e7backed Yes | 54c | 118.93$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 27c | 116.04$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.13 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 22c | 115.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 37c | 115.06$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.94 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed No | 10c | 115$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 67c | 107.76$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.69 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b4…05babacked Yes | 40c | 107.37$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.25 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes | 47c | 107.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.02 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 26c | 105$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.15 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 38c | 105$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.42 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 24c | 104.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.55 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…4390backed Yes | 70c | 104.86$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked Yes | 45c | 102.54$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.54 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 31c | 102$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.3 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe57…4406backed Yes | 33c | 101.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.64 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…1b47backed Yes | 58c | 100.14$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 31c | 100.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.75 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…64e4backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.43 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf083…3428backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 77c | 96.26$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 62c | 90.17$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 28c | 90.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.49 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 79c | 87.86$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 58c | 84.11$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…9802backed Yes | 36c | 83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.38 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…d6ffbacked No | 62c | 80.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 38c | 79.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.59 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 34c | 78.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on March 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or below on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or higher on March 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.