TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on March 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$91,494

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,494 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 187 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf876…8975backed No0c15,005$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.355332.1%17 W · 36 L-5.1wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-40.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb263…c49abacked Yes23c3,884$893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,990.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+334.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34f9…5ff9backed Yes23c3,851$886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,965.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+334.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd73f…03ddbacked Yes33c3,065$1,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,053.552100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+114%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x100a…c6cebacked No1c3,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212554.3%11 W · 244 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+221.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9abd…0fd5backed Yes32c2,990$957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,033.22100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+125.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x348d…e355backed Yes35c2,644$925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,718.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b6f…17edbacked Yes35c2,627$919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,707.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f08…9fdcbacked No67c1,535$1,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,028.4520%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf601…0989backed No67c1,530$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,025.1250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69b6…9525backed No68c1,500$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd44…22aebacked No68c1,490$1,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No17c1,335$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.2653525.2%135 W · 400 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc5a…d91abacked No65c1,328$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$863.210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8671…7127backed No65c1,321$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$858.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c44…3d39backed No65c1,316$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebb1…0791backed No65c1,306$849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5fe…0e2fbacked No77c1,302$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac7…0777backed No77c1,294$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13af…89ffbacked No77c1,294$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93d4…d407backed No77c1,288$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51c9…817dbacked No77c1,285$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cc9…8380backed No77c1,272$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ddb…3fa9backed No8c1,042$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.6231319.2%60 W · 253 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xce45…aa7bbacked No2c641.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153920.5%8 W · 31 L-4.9wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-67.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No70c534.26$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.9491967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes51c511.43$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.5477428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No12c503.6$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9959742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes25c502.43$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.4311646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30c8…8431backed No10c459.62$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes30c458.51$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.2817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes32c448.74$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.1316036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa05f…742dbacked Yes43c369.51$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.841181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick67cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No56c358.35$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.3486050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes71c347.56$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.5611233.9%38 W · 74 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes26c303.11$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.831,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x542f…916abacked Yes66c289.01$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.7977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.26per pick52cpaid+34.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8de4…427cbacked No76c288.16$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.13333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-34.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No28c263.61$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.2634219.9%68 W · 274 L+18.6wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4457…f3e2backed No47c249.95$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.98825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-51.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes25c247.32$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.6956434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4701…ca83backed No65c240$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15616456.7%93 W · 71 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes44c240$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.81,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes67c216.83$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.186,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No71c214.43$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.553,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes37c208.88$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.011,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No54c199.53$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.797,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No25c195.42$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0758349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No57c186.27$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.663,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65c7…9109backed No79c186.2$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.292259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaba5…9a02backed Yes54c185.18$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.182835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e3c…eba1backed No23c179.73$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3413453.7%72 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes36c178$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.491,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No53c174.57$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.091,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e76…95cdbacked Yes32c172.67$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.521936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe63…2de4backed Yes77c159.36$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.3611546.1%53 W · 62 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No59c153.66$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.118,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes70c152.76$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.8632444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb732…108dbacked Yes64c151.16$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.991457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+26.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x67ef…f4c8backed Yes39c150$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+97.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No64c146.4$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.011,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a55…359cbacked No26c136.32$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.152222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-40.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes19c131.05$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.051,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes27c129.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.4974338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes29c128.02$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.2225536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a0b…30aebacked Yes40c126.77$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.923333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No32c121.01$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.511,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes69c120.61$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.3824932.9%82 W · 167 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-32.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6045…b2e7backed Yes54c118.93$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.041435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-32.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes27c116.04$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.1311337.2%42 W · 71 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x79df…1661backed Yes22c115.15$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+53.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes37c115.06$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.9448331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x11a4…bba6backed No10c115$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.212223%28 W · 94 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No67c107.76$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.6927756%155 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88b4…05babacked Yes40c107.37$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.251833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes47c107.02$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.027146.5%33 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes26c105$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.1511835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cde…476ebacked Yes38c105$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.4216336.2%59 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46b3…d3debacked Yes24c104.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.5524414.3%35 W · 209 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bd5…4390backed Yes70c104.86$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.736660.6%40 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked Yes45c102.54$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.542846.4%13 W · 15 L+5.1wins+0.18per pick28cpaid+104.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x888f…23f5backed Yes31c102$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.317338.2%66 W · 107 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe57…4406backed Yes33c101.17$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.645527.3%15 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xed24…1b47backed Yes58c100.14$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.985141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes31c100.06$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.7536930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37e8…64e4backed No30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303638.9%14 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.431,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbe44…af27backed Yes26c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7417433.9%59 W · 115 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf083…3428backed Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704126.8%11 W · 30 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+60.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7095933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0b1…6754backed No77c96.26$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7435465%230 W · 124 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes62c90.17$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1757659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes28c90.16$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.4963538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes79c87.86$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8632352.9%171 W · 152 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9502…ba22backed Yes58c84.11$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.3411146.8%52 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa306…9802backed Yes36c83$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.382944.8%13 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x239d…d6ffbacked No62c80.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes65c80$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2833058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3636…1a57backed Yes38c79.98$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.598551.8%44 W · 41 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x263c…6114backed Yes34c78.7$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.715133.8%51 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.