Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb770b57343fafba279801d09c7b20b40a5b4cabdb7044f2543c08f90a6ad8c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,031 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 62c | 1,598$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.12 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 35c | 683$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.08 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x740e…93a9backed Yes | 61c | 569.99$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.3 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 9c | 444.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 26c | 406.35$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.78 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 392.64$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.55 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 38c | 389.26$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.06 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 46c | 344.5$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.22 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 37c | 314$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.95 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 70c | 282.45$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.04 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 29c | 261.71$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.79 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 28c | 251.73$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.69 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 231.06$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.33 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 226.58$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes | 22c | 217.39$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 86 | 9.3%8 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 46c | 215.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.82 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7843…6668backed Yes | 44c | 195.12$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.92 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…4d38backed Yes | 27c | 193.54$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.27 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 65c | 187.39$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.11 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 15c | 178.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.06 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 172.67$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.95 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 168.62$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 164.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.39 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 42c | 163.62$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.18 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 34c | 160.92$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.93 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 31c | 157.09$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 18c | 149.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.99 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…cf12backed No | 34c | 144.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 137.96$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.18 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x431c…4bbdbacked Yes | 69c | 134.8$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.71 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…2288backed Yes | 30c | 132.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.88 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 36c | 132$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.07 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 128.08$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.98 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…8622backed Yes | 67c | 125.39$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 71c | 120.61$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.4 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 27c | 114.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.6 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 43c | 113.89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.53 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3794…715cbacked No | 48c | 106.88$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.91 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…2155backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4457…f3e2backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.75 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee89…cfb3backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 66c | 97.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…946cbacked Yes | 57c | 95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +40%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 27c | 93.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.34 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 26c | 91.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.33 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 32c | 90$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 22c | 88.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.91 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 28c | 84.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.05 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 60c | 83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…8e67backed Yes | 68c | 80.88$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b39…eae4backed No | 75c | 79.12$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…616cbacked Yes | 39c | 77.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 70c | 74.53$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Yes | 31c | 74.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.04 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 32c | 69.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 74c | 67.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 26c | 65.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…692abacked No | 54c | 64.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 55c | 63.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 21c | 62.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.61 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2de…8209backed Yes | 65c | 61.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 25c | 60.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.79 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a9…13dabacked Yes | 25c | 60.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 24c | 60.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 75c | 60.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 47c | 59.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 25c | 59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 43c | 57.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc769…0925backed Yes | 21c | 57.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.46 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 62c | 56.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 72c | 55.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 41c | 55.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d6f…5e82backed No | 67c | 55.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 78c | 54.53$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 62c | 53.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 25c | 52.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Yes | 23c | 52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked Yes | 42c | 49.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 54c | 49.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 53c | 49.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb879…aa96backed Yes | 64c | 46.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 29c | 44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…9ffabacked Yes | 27c | 41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70ab…c998backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…f7eebacked No | 51c | 37.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 57c | 37.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 80c | 36.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e58…205abacked Yes | 63c | 36.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 30c | 34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 73c | 33.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.