Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab25e4bec2d7c02748d857d0109a06110fdd8bc8ac0ac9787b1c50ce7cee9a5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,581 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3a3…fa3cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,013$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 6c | 2,209$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked Yes | 10c | 2,164$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.08 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5265…391cbacked No | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71d…9fb1backed Yes | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 1,191$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.21 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8dd…cbc3backed Yes | 1c | 1,026$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 80c | 884.1$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.12 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 25c | 760.5$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.01 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 28c | 684.12$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.18 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 32c | 444.3$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.77 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 4c | 419.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…55e4backed No | 75c | 401.88$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.06 | 48 | 87.5%42 W · 6 L | +12.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +49%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x740e…93a9backed Yes | 44c | 399.99$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.49 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 46c | 374.91$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.28 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 43c | 371.86$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.15 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 49c | 354.98$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.44 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 64c | 347.75$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.53 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 326.49$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 18c | 282.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.68 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 46c | 282$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.24 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a5…e304backed Yes | 42c | 281.09$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.1 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…8e67backed Yes | 47c | 210$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.58 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 22c | 206.39$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 36c | 200.31$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.06 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 50c | 199.87$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.82 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed Yes | 78c | 199$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.27 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 60c | 198.82$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.06 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 168.94$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.91 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 167.64$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.83 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 164.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.61 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 64c | 154.35$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 36c | 145.59$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.52 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb879…aa96backed Yes | 45c | 144.11$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 61c | 141.59$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.24 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 44c | 137.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.17 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 19c | 135.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb9…9481backed Yes | 37c | 133.28$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…2288backed Yes | 53c | 132.2$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 130.69$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8112…dfb4backed Yes | 39c | 129.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 77c | 127$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 30c | 120$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 45c | 114.05$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked No | 27c | 108.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.91 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 74c | 107.94$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.38 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127f…b70cbacked Yes | 31c | 101.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…72d0backed Yes | 70c | 100.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.97 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x545f…66dbbacked Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee89…cfb3backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 45c | 99.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 78c | 99.5$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.61 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 99.23$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 97.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6559…2400backed Yes | 51c | 96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 46c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 45c | 88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 58c | 88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 20c | 83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…946cbacked Yes | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +40%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…692abacked No | 44c | 78.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.77 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…2be0backed No | 55c | 76.3$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 69c | 72.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a8…bcf2backed Yes | 61c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 58c | 67.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 43c | 65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 32c | 63.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 39c | 62.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 64c | 59.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 41c | 59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d4…899ebacked Yes | 34c | 58.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed No | 66c | 56.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 38c | 56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 60c | 55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 37c | 53.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c29…fe48backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92b7…8ab9backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2b…b2aebacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…84aabacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 41c | 49.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 50c | 49.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5580…8029backed Yes | 41c | 48.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 62c | 48.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cb…d64bbacked Yes | 41c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed Yes | 43c | 47.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 74c | 45.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf52b…bdf5backed No | 53c | 45.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 66c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 32c | 42.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.