Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4796ef89753722f6d5736457cc03f86b5ac3fa64c521981b7141fdf0b1d5950
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,964 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,283$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 5c | 999.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6850…d921backed Yes | 14c | 748.38$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.79 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 13c | 510.84$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb9…9481backed Yes | 15c | 508$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.56 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 13c | 439.97$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 6c | 377.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 347.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.83 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 9c | 289.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 15c | 240.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 16c | 198.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes | 8c | 198.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 86 | 9.3%8 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 11c | 180.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 173.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa2…931bbacked Yes | 13c | 130.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…fc29backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3de5…724bbacked Yes | 18c | 98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 17c | 88.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a21…652fbacked Yes | 14c | 88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1014…20d1backed Yes | 16c | 84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…0397backed Yes | 19c | 79.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed Yes | 14c | 79.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 17c | 79.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…b020backed Yes | 15c | 78.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed Yes | 22c | 76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 16c | 70.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 16c | 64.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 17c | 59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc45…2957backed Yes | 18c | 57.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 14.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.