Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 59°F or below on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71696d630785d911a0068609eff413835b656044d1312a11fd9f0a20afb18fe1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 3c | 1,044$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 5c | 845.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.02 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 6c | 708.34$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 6c | 650.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…73d9backed Yes | 57c | 560.9$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.71 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…764fbacked Yes | 19c | 522.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5f…7014backed Yes | 5c | 476$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7645…201bbacked Yes | 4c | 473.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 8c | 462$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…7825backed Yes | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 106 | 14.2%15 W · 91 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 338.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 4c | 307.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 6c | 297$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 5c | 269.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked Yes | 10c | 250.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdc…e278backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes | 10c | 221.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 86 | 9.3%8 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda27…ae5abacked Yes | 5c | 215.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…c4c5backed Yes | 7c | 198$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e76…95cdbacked Yes | 11c | 183.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed Yes | 65c | 182$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.32 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf483…3f62backed Yes | 7c | 174.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 169.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 6c | 168.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 7c | 161.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 8c | 154.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed No | 43c | 130$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 51c | 111.16$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.35 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed Yes | 54c | 111.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2c…7810backed Yes | 14c | 76.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 41 | 7.3%3 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46cd…bb68backed Yes | 34c | 65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ec…6373backed Yes | 29c | 54.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked Yes | 53c | 54.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbef6…efdebacked Yes | 55c | 36.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 52c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa511…010bbacked Yes | 62c | 34.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf251…5d3fbacked No | 43c | 27.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7781…adddbacked Yes | 41c | 27.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 65c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 146 | 17.1%25 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 18.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 66c | 17.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 59°F or below on March 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on March 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.