Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87f9ab5441a5ab9b6728ebbae282a56e47d4a540c77aa2a20b72bd4b7cef64af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,282 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 30c | 815.89$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.92 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 696.16$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.62 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…1994backed No | 60c | 516.96$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.15 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 20c | 500.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 27c | 462$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.65 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed No | 80c | 397.97$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.61 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc063…678bbacked Yes | 35c | 358.32$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.73 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 20c | 339.97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5db…bf4bbacked Yes | 24c | 338.43$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.73 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 19c | 263.24$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 23c | 229.74$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 209.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 16c | 203.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 176.75$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.28 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c9…b92fbacked Yes | 10c | 137.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 77c | 135.72$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 72c | 135.51$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…db02backed No | 75c | 133.17$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…cde0backed Yes | 28c | 133$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…d6ffbacked Yes | 53c | 132.16$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.09 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 44c | 126.48$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32e5…931abacked No | 68c | 124.9$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 24c | 124.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6997…06c1backed Yes | 29c | 118$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 14c | 112.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 71c | 105.25$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 105$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…fc88backed Yes | 29c | 104.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 73c | 102.53$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c28…73a4backed No | 71c | 100.53$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 91.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 43c | 88.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 20c | 87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…8f52backed No | 80c | 87$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x158c…fcb4backed Yes | 31c | 81.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 35c | 81.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…f641backed No | 71c | 80.88$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 35c | 79.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5052…564cbacked Yes | 33c | 75.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 69c | 74.81$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 28c | 70.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…e08ebacked Yes | 28c | 70.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 43c | 69.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd05…0e6ebacked No | 58c | 68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 29c | 65.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304e…9ce6backed Yes | 30c | 64.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 70c | 60.17$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf978…bcdfbacked No | 72c | 59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 56.07$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 79c | 55.14$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 55.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 31c | 51.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…ca53backed No | 72c | 50.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed No | 59c | 50.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 32c | 50.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…2c18backed No | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 76c | 49.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 23c | 47.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x548c…1da0backed Yes | 32c | 47.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2b…6eaabacked No | 79c | 46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbae…fbb5backed No | 72c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c20…f0a2backed No | 72c | 40.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 40.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8c…d084backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x574c…8a65backed Yes | 56c | 35.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 34.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…5685backed No | 73c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2018…640abacked Yes | 45c | 33.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7c…b91dbacked No | 71c | 31.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…190dbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb830…2ff3backed No | 69c | 29.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 52c | 27.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc02…504dbacked No | 78c | 25.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked No | 50c | 25.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…7935backed No | 73c | 21.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…1499backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b79…b67cbacked No | 75c | 18.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 74c | 18.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe38…2300backed No | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e84…d064backed No | 67c | 17.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 73c | 17.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9c…7e2fbacked No | 79c | 16.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cb…190fbacked No | 68c | 15.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c82…9728backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c5…01d0backed No | 72c | 13.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 59°F or below on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on March 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.