Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc5b98a04a5336166805bfb299fa75e3092c2d2b75f61314cd7cea31660c7954
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,134
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,134 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 709.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 15c | 609.92$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.32 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 18c | 462$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.03 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 10c | 368.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 342.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.33 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e6…4cdbbacked Yes | 18c | 300$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 11c | 217.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 14c | 212.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 7c | 203$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 200.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 169.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 25c | 165.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a7…16eebacked Yes | 16c | 156$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 14c | 152.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdc…e278backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 15c | 139.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…d0cebacked Yes | 20c | 122.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 22c | 111.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 78c | 111.35$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bd…94d4backed Yes | 15c | 107$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x158c…fcb4backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 17c | 101.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 18c | 99.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 16c | 88.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 14c | 87.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…fc88backed Yes | 27c | 74.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 16c | 69.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 18c | 69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked Yes | 19c | 63.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 19c | 59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5052…564cbacked Yes | 25c | 58.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x574c…8a65backed Yes | 19c | 53.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 20c | 53.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…18cbbacked No | 80c | 36.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…8f52backed No | 79c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ee…9fc4backed No | 79c | 26.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…76afbacked No | 77c | 26.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 70c | 21.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…d801backed No | 79c | 15.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 78c | 14.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on March 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 59°F or below on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on March 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.