Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9308414b72c01612c999ce8b1d9a6eb8bf45f7e089dfe5036b17218c313db3f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,750 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 1c | 2,040$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x376a…d270backed No | 73c | 875.28$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.76 | 48 | 89.6%43 W · 5 L | +14.9wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +78%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 68c | 459.02$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 50c | 417.86$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.7 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 79c | 375.13$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.47 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 37c | 324.09$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.54 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a0a4backed Yes | 52c | 297.78$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.37 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2f…a13cbacked Yes | 78c | 279.69$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.81 | 59 | 81.4%48 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c80…99fdbacked Yes | 41c | 262.36$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.21 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 12c | 229$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 44c | 224.28$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.4 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 52c | 213.11$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.69 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 41c | 199.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed No | 15c | 199.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.98 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 53c | 185.11$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 47c | 177$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.87 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 14c | 165.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.82 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 75c | 147.18$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22fe…20c6backed No | 46c | 142.79$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.11 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 58c | 138.63$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.05 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 49c | 121.38$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.23 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 37c | 119.31$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.74 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 22c | 110$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed No | 15c | 108.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.03 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 34c | 95.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.53 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 52c | 95.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 20c | 91.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.43 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 66c | 90.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.71 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…c4c5backed Yes | 61c | 90$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96f0…23dcbacked No | 26c | 87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b7…9f11backed No | 20c | 79.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.38 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…507abacked Yes | 68c | 77.25$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.83 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 17c | 76.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.09 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 73.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 56c | 71.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 57c | 71.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 20c | 70.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.44 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 29c | 63.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.76 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked No | 40c | 61.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 34c | 60.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 48c | 59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 21c | 58.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.33 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbc…0083backed No | 47c | 52.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…6e1abacked No | 52c | 51.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44d9…99babacked Yes | 52c | 51.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…76afbacked No | 42c | 48.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked Yes | 42c | 47.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 73c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70ab…c998backed No | 45c | 39.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…0a13backed Yes | 58c | 39.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 45c | 39.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 42c | 36.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 60c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 54c | 31.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8676…0290backed No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +118.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 33c | 30.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 68c | 29.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 51c | 29.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed Yes | 49c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbef6…efdebacked Yes | 69c | 28.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked Yes | 42c | 28.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 52c | 28.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc744…955cbacked No | 53c | 28.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 25.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 47c | 21.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 51c | 21.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf52b…bdf5backed No | 52c | 20.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 62c | 20.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a432backed Yes | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cee…506bbacked Yes | 80c | 13.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 76cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on March 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C or higher on March 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.