Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x274e742118389261a715dc725d02a0b8eca3d3f7e3ec4040b9c07e3a2c5c6993
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,393 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe155…45afbacked Yes | 7c | 380.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.23 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 9c | 352.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.24 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 9c | 352.37$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.21 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 63c | 326.36$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 309.29$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.01 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 9c | 261.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.24 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c80…99fdbacked Yes | 39c | 249.66$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.39 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 13c | 212.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.67 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 9c | 199.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…507abacked Yes | 35c | 188.36$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.18 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 41c | 177$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.41 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 44c | 145$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.35 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked Yes | 40c | 131.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.19 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +27.3wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 15c | 127.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.96 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 9c | 124.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.16 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 28c | 122.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.9 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 56c | 119.68$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 14c | 115.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 71c | 104.36$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.42 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 63c | 103.68$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.93 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 29c | 100.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.23 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 94.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 25c | 88.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.83 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 68c | 87.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 75c | 86.52$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 20c | 78.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 70c | 71.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 32c | 61.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 40c | 49.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 24c | 48.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 33c | 43.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 64c | 43.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 36c | 28.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 49c | 25.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 46c | 21.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x258d…4fd6backed No | 72c | 20.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2f…0a46backed No | 70c | 17.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 69cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 70c | 15.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…72ddbacked No | 75c | 15.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 73c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C or higher on March 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.