Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf40cb6bdbfec8141f5fbcd172b0a403d4857a5b5761e781e11c3e4f2902fbb8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,275 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 181 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce45…aa7bbacked No | 0c | 5,031$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbff5…13cabacked Yes | 41c | 2,382$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,405.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8691…1996backed Yes | 41c | 2,340$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed No | 5c | 1,929$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.41 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 68c | 1,399$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.41 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba22…0752backed No | 59c | 1,210$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f30…f493backed No | 59c | 1,200$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc08b…64b9backed No | 59c | 1,182$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c82…ad3abacked No | 59c | 1,130$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 8c | 813.85$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.62 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe57…4406backed Yes | 34c | 798.4$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.76 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 69c | 674.48$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.13 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 52c | 618.24$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.8 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 9c | 587.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 43c | 470.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.32 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 29c | 440.99$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.09 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked No | 15c | 434.14$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.19 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 71c | 428$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.15 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…1b56backed No | 4c | 404.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | +268.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 35c | 354.67$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.28 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…ca17backed Yes | 17c | 352.83$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.51 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x295b…0f1dbacked Yes | 37c | 334.11$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.7 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 59c | 328.27$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.55 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 26c | 309.75$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.18 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 45c | 303.64$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.24 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 35c | 281.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.74 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 21c | 263.18$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.03 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 261.87$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.3 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 251.49$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.6 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 36c | 250$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 245.94$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.86 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 37c | 229$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.12 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 53c | 224.02$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.93 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 41c | 216.98$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.61 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 66c | 199.09$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.36 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 70c | 189.82$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.27 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 63c | 172.63$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.81 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 35c | 169.97$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.48 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 165.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed No | 12c | 165$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x545f…66dbbacked No | 21c | 150$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…2be0backed No | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 40c | 145.8$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.47 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00cd…1f94backed Yes | 41c | 140$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +146.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x393d…6b95backed No | 74c | 135.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed Yes | 35c | 134.04$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.41 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4013…406bbacked Yes | 80c | 134.02$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 35c | 130$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.5 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 78c | 128.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.47 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x774c…d9d0backed Yes | 36c | 125$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 38c | 117$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.99 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 52c | 116.74$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.02 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 12c | 115.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.32 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cb…c1dcbacked No | 36c | 115.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa60…2285backed Yes | 36c | 115$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 33c | 113.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.77 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 41c | 109.89$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 60c | 109.79$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.92 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…e944backed No | 23c | 108.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 107.02$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3be1…79f3backed Yes | 66c | 106.02$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b6…2987backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee89…cfb3backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c2…d167backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…72d0backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.34 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 35c | 99.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.66 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x503f…9cc5backed No | 40c | 99.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 26c | 96.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.26 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 64c | 93.4$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd216…044cbacked No | 22c | 91.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 21c | 90.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.03 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 52c | 89.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b47…c0dabacked Yes | 35c | 87.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.96 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 67c | 87$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.43 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 35c | 84.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.58 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 37c | 81.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.63 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 25c | 80.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.37 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 64c | 78.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92b7…8ab9backed Yes | 79c | 77$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 59c | 73.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 41c | 72.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes | 42c | 71.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.57 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…9109backed Yes | 42c | 71.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 34c | 68.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed Yes | 60c | 66.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b39…eae4backed No | 64c | 65.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 65c | 65.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 62.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 64c | 62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 39c | 61.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 40c | 60.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 22c | 60.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.