Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x555db9a3c522c4bd4762fe5de5721c6fc1e85da7f39ce942220e0f735e029f36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,656 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,007$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.63 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 6c | 613.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 605.79$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.86 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe57…4406backed Yes | 8c | 458.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d99…62a8backed Yes | 8c | 436.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed Yes | 4c | 384.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 7c | 375.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 13c | 369.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 362.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 4c | 360.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…ca17backed Yes | 12c | 338.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6850…d921backed Yes | 11c | 319.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 5c | 281.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…deb9backed Yes | 8c | 255.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x295b…0f1dbacked Yes | 9c | 242.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 9c | 241.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 9c | 232.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 8c | 229$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 6c | 226.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 7c | 224.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76cc…9db8backed Yes | 9c | 216.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7105…b731backed Yes | 8c | 187$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…0397backed Yes | 8c | 176.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eba…2560backed Yes | 8c | 162.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 8c | 161.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe5…bd90backed Yes | 8c | 145$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac6…24d3backed Yes | 14c | 143.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x788f…c351backed Yes | 13c | 117.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce45…aa7bbacked Yes | 13c | 117.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 25c | 115.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 80c | 94.23$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 17c | 79.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…b020backed Yes | 14c | 78.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b18…a728backed Yes | 14c | 73.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 23c | 65.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 74c | 16.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.