Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35b26c1aec72b34f8f99d9b5ffd4a19a62a5bf571db2c2917b5a6861ed383749
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,437
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,437 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d85…c436backed Yes | 2c | 29,381$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x295b…0f1dbacked Yes | 4c | 3,009$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.16 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 7c | 1,478$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.78 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 8c | 1,400$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.99 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,328$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.79 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6d…11bdbacked Yes | 6c | 1,297$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 6c | 1,289$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.43 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 3c | 1,227$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x049a…792dbacked Yes | 5c | 933.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 8c | 753.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.85 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 7c | 753.46$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.35 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 10c | 736.51$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.66 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 5c | 685.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 680.2$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…1b56backed Yes | 6c | 663.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | +268.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe57…4406backed Yes | 17c | 624.06$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.14 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 14c | 620.24$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.8 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 7c | 610.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 10c | 599.33$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.45 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 78c | 580.33$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.72 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed Yes | 6c | 541.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 14c | 401.17$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84aa…d5c1backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes | 18c | 388.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 86 | 9.3%8 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x378d…c695backed Yes | 5c | 379.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 6c | 339.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 13c | 311.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 11c | 289.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019b…8edebacked No | 79c | 287.31$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 257.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…6049backed Yes | 9c | 256.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 15c | 229$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 13c | 226.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 7c | 188.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 14c | 186.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 14c | 174.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c1…fe0ebacked Yes | 24c | 173.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b42…c94dbacked Yes | 25c | 155.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 31c | 152.85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 14c | 138.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 10c | 133.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a5…859cbacked Yes | 9c | 131.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 14c | 131.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5f…2ec8backed Yes | 34c | 126.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…f224backed Yes | 12c | 123.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 8c | 121.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 13c | 117$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed Yes | 11c | 116.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee0…9d32backed Yes | 13c | 113$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 15c | 112.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b06…8eb2backed Yes | 12c | 112$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 11c | 111.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked Yes | 14c | 102.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 12c | 101.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92b…84afbacked Yes | 16c | 101.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9675…b63fbacked Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd75c…fd4ebacked Yes | 12c | 99.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 16c | 97.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 21c | 96.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 31c | 90.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 23c | 87.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d4…e4b1backed Yes | 13c | 85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd8…c3edbacked Yes | 14c | 82.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cb…c1dcbacked Yes | 30c | 78.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e76…95cdbacked Yes | 15c | 77.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 14c | 77.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ac…2c3ebacked Yes | 20c | 53.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 79c | 44.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 76c | 22.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb7…12a7backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.