Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafdafd2a27b8e62f310b336f178d46a08df8979d1a6eedb864b6c5f4ffa3fde5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,233 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6045…b2e7backed Yes | 0c | 20,054$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x690b…9145backed Yes | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd13f…4906backed No | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x393d…6b95backed Yes | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x295b…0f1dbacked Yes | 30c | 984.76$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.05 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 68c | 864.97$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.96 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 18c | 784.16$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.86 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 69c | 700.69$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.04 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 64c | 667.6$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.39 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 75c | 647.21$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.37 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 3c | 577.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 62c | 512.79$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.55 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8c…0977backed Yes | 38c | 506.12$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.11 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 31c | 463.53$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.77 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 48c | 411.62$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.58 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 380$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 26c | 314.24$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.94 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 309$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 69c | 289.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.85 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 62c | 285.91$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.02 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 281.48$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.25 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…2288backed Yes | 49c | 280$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.16 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 31c | 260.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.57 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 39c | 256.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 254.85$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.72 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab77…da8bbacked Yes | 41c | 249.9$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.46 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 15c | 242.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 5c | 240.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb9…9481backed Yes | 35c | 237$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.02 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 11c | 230.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 31c | 229$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.35 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 11c | 226.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 47c | 225.54$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.7 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 34c | 221$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 66c | 217.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.15 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 179.53$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.32 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 8c | 165$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 11c | 160$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe57…4406backed Yes | 29c | 158.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 24c | 157.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c2…d167backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 51c | 146.7$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 23c | 143.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafb6…bafdbacked Yes | 40c | 143$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 63c | 135$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…1b56backed Yes | 32c | 129.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.33 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | +268.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…692abacked No | 54c | 128.17$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.81 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 33c | 123.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab4…468cbacked Yes | 38c | 119$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 30c | 115.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 33c | 115.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…ee30backed Yes | 38c | 115$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 36c | 105.21$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 37c | 104.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 16c | 104.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 33c | 104.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…9109backed Yes | 45c | 100.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cb…c1dcbacked Yes | 30c | 100.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 40c | 100.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4013…406bbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 68c | 98.57$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf2…0b9abacked Yes | 40c | 94.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 54c | 94$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 31c | 91.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed Yes | 37c | 82.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 29c | 79.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe413…387cbacked Yes | 31c | 78.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 59c | 75.57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed No | 59c | 74.06$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 34c | 73.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 38c | 73.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71a…f135backed Yes | 40c | 72.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 22c | 69.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 43c | 69.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 74c | 67.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 38c | 66.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 30c | 65.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 74c | 65.14$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 35c | 64.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 62c | 61.54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 30c | 59.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 31c | 59.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed Yes | 28c | 57.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa1…347dbacked Yes | 31c | 57.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 65c | 57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…6a43backed Yes | 44c | 56.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 28c | 55.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ac…2c3ebacked Yes | 31c | 53.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed Yes | 38c | 52.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 28c | 52.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x142c…6b69backed No | 61c | 52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 38c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.