TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$62,233

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,233 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6045…b2e7backed Yes0c20,054$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-32.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x690b…9145backed Yes50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5001513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-78.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd13f…4906backed No50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5001127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x393d…6b95backed Yes47c1,064$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.6wins-0.24per pick50cpaid-58.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x295b…0f1dbacked Yes30c984.76$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.052729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No68c864.97$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.9691967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes18c784.16$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.8686226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No69c700.69$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.0486050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No64c667.6$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.393,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No75c647.21$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.3758349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes3c577.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.995933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No62c512.79$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.551,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d8c…0977backed Yes38c506.12$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.116315.9%10 W · 53 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-63.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes31c463.53$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.7777428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes48c411.62$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.5811436.8%42 W · 72 L-12.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes15c380$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.246,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes26c314.24$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.941,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes28c309$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.2217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No69c289.83$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.852,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No62c285.91$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.021,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No64c281.48$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.253,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69e3…2288backed Yes49c280$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.165244.2%23 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes31c260.85$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.577225%18 W · 54 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-6.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes39c256.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes35c254.85$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.727,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab77…da8bbacked Yes41c249.9$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.461729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes15c242.92$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8631341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes5c240.82$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0496313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbb9…9481backed Yes35c237$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.024035%14 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes11c230.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5733620.2%68 W · 268 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes31c229$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.351,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes11c226.69$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.141,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9502…ba22backed Yes47c225.54$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.711146.8%52 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes34c221$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.8833139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No66c217.99$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.1531868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No61c179.53$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.328,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes8c165$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0535232.7%115 W · 237 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a38…ada9backed Yes11c160$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1823633.1%78 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe57…4406backed Yes29c158.16$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.285527.3%15 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes24c157.06$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.241,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9c2…d167backed Yes17c150$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.55425.9%14 W · 40 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-27.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes51c146.7$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7532444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes23c143.07$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.111337.2%42 W · 71 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xafb6…bafdbacked Yes40c143$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe34…8ee7backed No63c135$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.1616355.2%90 W · 73 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes8c130$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.41,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff2a…1b56backed Yes32c129.39$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.33185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick13cpaid+268.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bb4…692abacked No54c128.17$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.813357.6%19 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes33c123.83$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.651,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ab4…468cbacked Yes38c119$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes30c115.82$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.151,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes33c115.6$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.291,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x108f…ee30backed Yes38c115$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.561233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes36c105.21$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3976924.3%187 W · 582 L-16.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc498…8ba5backed Yes37c104.8$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.442438.9%165 W · 259 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes16c104.75$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.662,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes33c104.46$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5622028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65c7…9109backed Yes45c100.74$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5cb…c1dcbacked Yes30c100.01$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.992352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x888f…23f5backed Yes40c100.01$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4017338.2%66 W · 107 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4013…406bbacked Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-34.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cde…476ebacked Yes41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8916336.2%59 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3536930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No68c98.57$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.62,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdf2…0b9abacked Yes40c94.97$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+19.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ced…7ce8backed No54c94$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.2413748.2%66 W · 71 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Yes31c91.09$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2413523%31 W · 104 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes32c90$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.23,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3837…c507backed Yes37c82.88$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3110444.2%46 W · 58 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3636…1a57backed Yes38c80$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.48551.8%44 W · 41 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes39c80$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.274338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes29c79.07$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1456434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe413…387cbacked Yes31c78.03$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No59c75.57$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0457232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0x6723…a540backed No59c74.06$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.192060%12 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x263c…6114backed Yes34c73.32$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2515133.8%51 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fbc…4105backed Yes38c73.02$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7533726.4%89 W · 248 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc71a…f135backed Yes40c72.29$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes22c69.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.41,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb14…0da7backed Yes43c69.85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7624921.3%53 W · 196 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No74c67.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5770770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Yes38c66.79$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.788028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes30c65.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2055942.6%238 W · 321 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No74c65.14$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8463656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes35c64.59$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8954037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No62c61.54$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.11,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e6a…5192backed Yes33c60.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208740.2%35 W · 52 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+37.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes30c59.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1863538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb608…881ebacked Yes31c59.95$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3918842.6%80 W · 108 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdedb…5e54backed Yes28c57.85$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3618351.4%94 W · 89 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fa1…347dbacked Yes31c57.73$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+44.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4701…ca83backed No65c57$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1716456.7%93 W · 71 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb31e…6a43backed Yes44c56.73$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255538.2%21 W · 34 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes28c55.9$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4964333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74ac…2c3ebacked Yes31c53.07$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.322231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x173a…eb85backed Yes38c52.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205547.3%26 W · 29 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes28c52.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8356721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x142c…6b69backed No61c52$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb397…283abacked Yes38c52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.767233.3%24 W · 48 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.