Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C or higher on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79fa2a9fe061d1e36c030540f7def4c775aa1dd19f85734a98fa69c3df00e2dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,712
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,712 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 3c | 1,202$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.31 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 4c | 1,192$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 1,096$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.29 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 8c | 1,043$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.97 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,030$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.16 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 816.17$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.44 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 10c | 550.17$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9eb…3d11backed Yes | 3c | 456.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 9c | 422.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked Yes | 6c | 411.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 7c | 322.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 14c | 319.06$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 5c | 285$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed Yes | 4c | 235.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 13c | 222.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 6c | 219.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed Yes | 28c | 218.18$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.09 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 14c | 205.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed Yes | 16c | 199.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 8c | 196.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c79…c259backed Yes | 11c | 194.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 9c | 190.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de5…3d0fbacked Yes | 17c | 183.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 134.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 72c | 130.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 18c | 130.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 68c | 127$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 77c | 110.32$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb3…f497backed Yes | 33c | 105$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 23c | 100.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 17c | 92.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…57d5backed Yes | 26c | 84.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe39e…23a5backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 33c | 69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 22c | 68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 146 | 17.1%25 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 30c | 66.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 27c | 57.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f6…5d2dbacked Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 77 | 19.5%15 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 47c | 52.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 80c | 44.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 69c | 40.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf52b…bdf5backed No | 62c | 39.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x174c…4351backed Yes | 40c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 32c | 35.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 44c | 31.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…35b8backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 58c | 18.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 80c | 17.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C or higher on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.