Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a6a9f81cc4adb3024c18331e39e27bd1d52e88ed4453dee3e09e71e49d7bc90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,299
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,299 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 1c | 1,548$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 1,052$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.81 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 23c | 750.45$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.51 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 576.01$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 27c | 572.67$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.37 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 57c | 478.3$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.04 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 15c | 433.61$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.68 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 76c | 384$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.9 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 378.15$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.31 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 14c | 327.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 14c | 239.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked Yes | 23c | 219.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.55 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 11c | 218.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 30c | 200.23$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 41c | 200$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.78 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 11c | 191.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 14c | 175.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 15c | 170.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.26 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…6ba1backed Yes | 74c | 168$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 25c | 150$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.14 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c80…99fdbacked Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.2 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 72c | 146.96$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 120.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 71c | 117$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.39 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 77c | 113.69$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.88 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 38c | 111.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed No | 22c | 110.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 110$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 105$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.85 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 24c | 103.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.66 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 101.98$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.21 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 74c | 100.13$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed Yes | 79c | 97.86$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ec…95dabacked Yes | 21c | 80.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.97 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…6221backed No | 22c | 66.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 68c | 57.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 74c | 50.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf45a…854bbacked No | 30c | 49.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 78c | 49.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x574c…8a65backed Yes | 65c | 46.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 73c | 41.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 34c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 40c | 38.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked Yes | 43c | 27.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce0…c846backed Yes | 78c | 25.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 75c | 18.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c48…2a9dbacked No | 77c | 15.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 78c | 13.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 77c | 13.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C or higher on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.