La Liga · resolved market
Will Villarreal CF vs. Elche CF end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f3bab2760eeb135e910ba0dfe722dce30a92917b5fa612775de61fbcd97b60f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,214 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa89c…398fbacked Yes | 25c | 8,000$2,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,033.18 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 80c | 6,001$4,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200.29 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa302…de94backed Yes | 20c | 5,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 20c | 4,888$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.6 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 21c | 4,609$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.84 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd857…c092backed No | 76c | 3,928$2,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.72 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d80…ba3dbacked No | 80c | 3,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +33%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed No | 80c | 3,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 219 | 57.5%126 W · 93 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe726…4c87backed Yes | 20c | 2,303$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.48 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f7…232cbacked Yes | 13c | 2,251$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.69 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d4…b415backed No | 80c | 2,218$1,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5db5…1a50backed Yes | 13c | 1,931$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3077…d15dbacked No | 80c | 1,821$1,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…8f41backed No | 78c | 1,622$1,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.23 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 79c | 1,591$1,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.72 | 922 | 54.1%499 W · 423 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x687d…e28bbacked Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…6543backed No | 80c | 963$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 20c | 539.38$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.88 | 326 | 45.4%148 W · 178 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa42…2ff3backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +162.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 8c | 490.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 1,508 | 38.7%583 W · 925 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…1c0bbacked Yes | 16c | 437.5$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 6c | 403.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…7204backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +84%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…82ffbacked Yes | 21c | 363.85$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd33f…3e82backed Yes | 16c | 306.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 78c | 276$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.81 | 1,018 | 53.1%541 W · 477 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…2a03backed Yes | 7c | 256.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 20c | 251$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 836 | 50.7%424 W · 412 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 12c | 212.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 173 | 26.6%46 W · 127 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd70c…3da8backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e28…cf34backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked No | 80c | 165.98$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 197 | 50.3%99 W · 98 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac3…5a50backed Yes | 20c | 157.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 11c | 149.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 351 | 45.6%160 W · 191 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf08…f17ebacked No | 80c | 145.99$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Yes | 11c | 137.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 229 | 39.3%90 W · 139 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x749f…714bbacked Yes | 21c | 129$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…c39cbacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 80c | 109.9$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 276 | 52.5%145 W · 131 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba09…5142backed No | 80c | 109.69$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccca…8d98backed No | 80c | 108.17$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 20c | 102.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 140 | 23.6%33 W · 107 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6058…1327backed Yes | 20c | 102$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bb…60c2backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…09fcbacked Yes | 20c | 98.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 80c | 90.25$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 490 | 57.1%280 W · 210 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 215 | 46%99 W · 116 L | -14.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…dba8backed Yes | 12c | 84.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…38b2backed Yes | 20c | 80.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 206 | 30.6%63 W · 143 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 21c | 72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 140 | 28.6%40 W · 100 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yes | 19c | 68.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 174 | 55.2%96 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Yes | 20c | 68.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 288 | 47.6%137 W · 151 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 20c | 67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 791 | 33%261 W · 530 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9d…1299backed No | 76c | 65.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x332d…7b0ebacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +9.6wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa843…8d01backed No | 80c | 61.63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 185 | 51.9%96 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b7…de43backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…e74fbacked Yes | 20c | 59.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.5wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 21c | 57.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 163 | 41.1%67 W · 96 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 627 | 44.3%278 W · 349 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb196…33d5backed No | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2951…ef00backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd3…bd7fbacked No | 80c | 34.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee4…4b3ebacked No | 80c | 33.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 285 | 58.2%166 W · 119 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 185 | 64.9%120 W · 65 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e76…47fabacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 92 | 67.4%62 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf877…77e1backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 176 | 60.2%106 W · 70 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b38…a036backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b14…b151backed No | 80c | 18.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x093b…4e14backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 80c | 13.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 1,038 | 48.1%499 W · 539 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x042e…4114backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Villarreal CF vs. Elche CF end in a draw?this page
- Will Elche CF win on 2026-03-08?No won
- Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-03-08?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.